Study: Americans Pay 90% of Trump-Era Tariffs

New York Federal Reserve analysis finds U.S. consumers and firms bear brunt of trade war costs.

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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A new analysis from the New York Federal Reserve has found that American consumers and businesses paid nearly 90% of the costs of the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration's trade war, as foreign exporters only reduced their prices by a small fraction of the tariff amounts.

Why it matters

The findings contradict President Trump's repeated claims that his tariffs were paid by foreign countries, and instead show that the economic burden of the trade war fell squarely on American households and companies.

The details

The New York Fed researchers examined import price data and found that over the first eight months of 2025, 94% of the tariff costs were passed on to U.S. consumers, meaning a 10% tariff only led to a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices.

  • The New York Federal Reserve analysis was published on February 13, 2026.

The players

New York Federal Reserve

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducted the analysis on the economic impact of Trump-era tariffs.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. President who imposed a series of tariffs on imports during his administration, claiming they would be paid by foreign countries.

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The takeaway

The findings from the New York Federal Reserve undermine the Trump administration's justification for its trade war policies, showing that American households and businesses ultimately bore the brunt of the tariff costs, not foreign exporters as claimed.