Study: Americans Paid Nearly 90% of Trump's Tariffs in 2025

New York Fed report contradicts Trump's claims that foreign countries bore the cost of his import taxes.

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that American consumers and companies paid nearly 90% of the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs through late 2025, contradicting Trump's repeated claims that foreigners would pay for his import taxes. The study adds to a growing body of evidence indicating American families paid a significant price for Trump's trade policies.

Why it matters

This report challenges Trump's long-held assertion that his tariffs would be paid by other countries, not American households. It provides further evidence that the costs of Trump's trade war were largely borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, potentially impacting inflation, household budgets, and the broader economy.

The details

The New York Fed study found that through August 2025, 94% of the import taxes fell on American companies and consumers. By November, the 'pass-through' rate had dipped to 86%, meaning U.S. firms and consumers continued to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs. The report affirms what many economists had predicted - that Trump's tariffs would be mostly a tax on Americans.

  • The New York Fed study was published on February 12, 2026.
  • The report analyzed the impact of Trump's tariffs through late 2025.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducted the study on the impact of Trump's tariffs.

President Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who imposed a series of tariffs, claiming that foreign countries would pay the cost.

Wayne Winegarden

A senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute, a free-market think tank, who commented on the New York Fed report.

The Wall Street Journal

The newspaper that published an editorial criticizing Trump's claims about the tariffs in light of the New York Fed study.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

The findings of the New York Fed study are likely to fuel further debate over the economic impact of Trump's trade policies and whether they achieved their intended goals.

The takeaway

This report provides clear evidence that the costs of Trump's trade war were largely borne by American consumers and businesses, contradicting the former president's claims. It underscores how tariffs can have unintended consequences and negatively impact domestic households, even if the goal is to protect domestic industries.