Study: U.S. Consumers Bore 90% of Trump-Era Tariff Costs

Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis finds Americans absorbed vast majority of tariff burden

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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A new study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that U.S. firms and consumers bore nearly 90% of the economic burden from President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed in 2025, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.6% at the start of the year to 13% by year's end. The study analyzed import data through November 2025 and found that foreign exporters largely maintained their prices rather than absorbing tariff costs.

Why it matters

The findings challenge the Trump administration's claims that foreign exporters would pay the tariffs, highlighting the significant economic impact on American consumers and businesses. The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of many of President Trump's tariffs, which could impact future trade policy.

The details

The study authors noted that the average tariffs climbed from 2.6% to 13% during 2025, with pass-through rates showing Americans absorbed 94% of tariffs from January to August, easing to 92% in September-October and 86% in November. Previous research has found 100% pass-through by foreign exporters.

  • The study was released on February 12, 2026.
  • The analysis covered import data through November 2025.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducted the study on the economic impact of President Trump's tariffs.

President Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who imposed the tariffs that are the subject of the study.

U.S. Supreme Court

The court that is set to rule on the legality of many of President Trump's tariffs.

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What’s next

The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of many of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which officials say could impact future trade policy.

The takeaway

The study's findings challenge the Trump administration's claims that foreign exporters would bear the burden of tariffs, highlighting the significant economic toll on American consumers and businesses. As the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the legality of these tariffs, the long-term cost-of-living effects could persist even if the policy's impact wanes.