New York Fed Economists: Americans Paying for Trump's Tariffs

Data shows U.S. businesses and consumers bearing the brunt of import taxes, contradicting the president's claims.

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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Despite President Donald Trump's insistence that other countries are paying for his import tariffs, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that American households and businesses are footing the bill. The report, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Foreign Trade Statistics, showed that Americans paid for nearly 90% of the tariffs in 2025, including 94% from January to August, 92% from September to October, and 86% in November.

Why it matters

The findings contradict the president's repeated claims that foreign producers and middlemen are bearing the burden of the tariffs. This has significant implications for American consumers and businesses, who are facing higher prices and reduced profits as a result of the tariffs.

The details

The report's authors - Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein - explained that over the course of 2025, average tariff rates quintupled from 2.6% to 13%. If foreign firms were paying the levies, it would be reflected in them lowering their prices. Instead, the data shows companies exporting to the U.S. have only modestly decreased their prices, leaving domestic companies to absorb the increased costs or pass them down to consumers.

  • From January to August 2025, Americans paid 94% of the tariffs.
  • From September to October 2025, Americans paid 92% of the tariffs.
  • In November 2025, Americans paid 86% of the tariffs.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducted the report analyzing the impact of Trump's tariffs on American businesses and consumers.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who imposed a raft of tariffs, claiming that foreign countries were paying for them.

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What they’re saying

“Our results show that the bulk of the tariff incidence continues to fall on U.S. firms and consumers.”

— Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Federal Reserve Bank of New York report)

“The data shows that the burden, or 'incidence,' of the tariffs has fallen overwhelmingly on foreign producers and middlemen, including large corporations that are not from the U.S.”

— Donald Trump (Wall Street Journal op-ed)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could have significant implications for the future of U.S. trade policy.

The takeaway

This report from the New York Fed provides further evidence that American businesses and consumers, not foreign producers, are bearing the brunt of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. As the costs of these tariffs continue to mount, it raises questions about the efficacy and long-term impact of the president's trade policies.