Who Wins the Redistricting Race?

The most aggressive wave of middecade redistricting in modern American history will face its first real-world test in less than a month.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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The article discusses the ongoing redistricting efforts across several U.S. states, including Texas, California, Florida, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, and Virginia. It examines how these new congressional maps could reshape the upcoming midterm elections and affect the balance of power between the two major political parties. The article also explores the legal and political implications of this unprecedented wave of middecade redistricting, and the potential impact on public confidence in the democratic process.

Why it matters

Redistricting typically occurs every 10 years, coinciding with the decennial census. However, the current wave of middecade redistricting is highly unusual and raises concerns about the potential for politicians to manipulate district boundaries for partisan advantage. This could further undermine public trust in the democratic process, as it appears that lawmakers are aggressively manipulating the system for their own political ends.

The details

Several states have either redrawn or begun efforts to redraw their congressional maps outside of the normal decennial cycle, including Texas, California, Florida, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, and Virginia. These efforts are aimed at increasing the chances of one party holding the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. For example, the White House called on Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map last June, hoping to give the GOP as many as five additional seats. This prompted a tit-for-tat response from California, where Democrats pushed through a constitutional amendment to allow the legislature to draw new lines through 2030. The article also discusses the legal challenges to these new maps, with the Supreme Court staying the Texas map and declining to intervene in the California case.

  • In July, the Department of Justice wrote to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, arguing that four Democratic-held congressional districts were drawn 'along strict racial lines.'
  • Texas Republicans signed a new map into law by August, and when the civil rights nonprofit League of United Latin American Citizens challenged the map as unconstitutionally motivated by racial considerations, the Supreme Court stayed the map in an unsigned 6-3 December order.
  • California put a constitutional amendment, Proposition 50, before voters in November, allowing the legislature to draw new lines through 2030. Voters approved it by a 28-point margin.
  • In October, Republican legislators in North Carolina passed a new map that was challenged in court, but a federal district court upheld it, ruling that the new lines were not motivated by racial discrimination.
  • In October, Ohio's bipartisan redistricting commission unanimously approved new congressional lines.

The players

Greg Abbott

The governor of Texas.

Ken Paxton

The attorney general of Texas.

Gavin Newsom

The governor of California.

Emanuel Cleaver

A longtime Democratic representative from the Kansas City area since 2005.

Abigail Spanberger

The Democratic governor of Virginia.

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What they’re saying

“I think middecade redistricting for further partisan advantage, and this retaliatory cycle of further middecade redistricting, just further undermines public confidence in the democratic process, because it certainly looks like politicians are aggressively manipulating the system for their own partisan ends.”

— Richard Pildes, Constitutional law professor at New York University (The Morning Dispatch)

“Democracy is healthy when elections are competitive. If elections are not competitive, that's a worrisome sign.”

— Edward Foley, Constitutional law professor at Ohio State University (The Morning Dispatch)

“If it's not addressed, I think it is opening up a door to a constant revisit of changing the rules, rather than changing positions, to appeal to the public. Our institutions aren't being responsive to voters. The question now is, if there is to be change that is more responsive, where are we going to get it? The answer always has to be from the people.”

— Kareem Crayton, Vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice's Washington, D.C. office (The Morning Dispatch)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow the new congressional map to be used in the upcoming primary elections.

The takeaway

This unprecedented wave of middecade redistricting raises serious concerns about the integrity of the democratic process and the potential for politicians to manipulate district boundaries for their own partisan gain. Without a national standard or intervention from the courts, this tit-for-tat cycle of redistricting is likely to continue, further eroding public confidence in the fairness of elections.