US Births Dropped in 2025, Ending 2024 Uptick

Economic conditions and uncertainty continue to impact childbearing decisions

Published on Feb. 6, 2026

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According to newly released provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. births fell slightly in 2025, with just over 3.6 million births reported through birth certificates. This decline appears to confirm predictions by some experts who doubted the slight increase seen in 2024, as economic conditions and uncertainty continue to impact childbearing decisions.

Why it matters

The drop in U.S. births in 2025 suggests the 2024 uptick may have been short-lived, as economic factors and uncertainty continue to influence people's decisions around having children. This trend has broader implications for population growth, the labor force, and social services.

The details

The CDC's provisional birth data for 2025 accounts for nearly all of the babies born that year, with the final tally expected to add only a few thousand additional births. Experts say people are marrying later and also worry about their ability to have the money, health insurance, and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment. While the Trump administration took steps to encourage more births in 2024, the overall fertility rate in the U.S. has been sliding for close to two decades as more women wait longer to have children or don't have kids at all.

  • The CDC updated its provisional birth data for 2025 late last week.
  • Most of the births in 2025 would have been children conceived in 2024, when people were worried about affordability and political polarization.

The players

Robert Anderson

Oversees birth and death tracking at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Katherine Guzzo

An expert who predicted the 2025 birth decline due to economic conditions and uncertainty.

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What they’re saying

“I wouldn't expect birth or fertility rates to have risen; I would expect them to fall because childbearing is highly related to economic conditions and uncertainty.”

— Katherine Guzzo (Email)

The takeaway

The drop in U.S. births in 2025 suggests that the slight increase seen in 2024 may have been a temporary blip, as economic factors and uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on people's decisions around having children. This trend has broader implications for population growth, the labor force, and social services in the years to come.