CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Reach $1.853 Trillion in 2026

Deficit projected to average 6.1% of GDP over next decade, exceeding Treasury Secretary's 3% goal

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has forecast that the U.S. budget deficit will grow slightly in fiscal 2026 to $1.853 trillion, about 5.8% of GDP. This represents a worsening of the country's fiscal picture compared to previous projections, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio expected to average 6.1% over the next decade and reach 6.7% by fiscal 2036.

Why it matters

The growing budget deficit highlights the challenges the U.S. government faces in managing its fiscal policies, with the CBO's projections significantly more pessimistic than the Trump administration's growth forecasts. This could put pressure on policymakers to address the deficit through spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination of both.

The details

The CBO's current projections for the fiscal 2026 deficit are about $100 billion, or 8%, higher than its January 2025 projections. The cumulative deficit over the 2026-2035 period is also $1.4 trillion, or 6%, greater than previously forecast. The CBO cites the impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that extended 2017 tax cuts and reduced social program spending, as well as lower immigration, as contributing factors to the growing deficits.

  • The CBO released its latest budget deficit projections on February 11, 2026.
  • The fiscal 2026 deficit is forecast to be $1.853 trillion, about 5.8% of GDP.
  • The deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to average 6.1% over the next decade, reaching 6.7% by fiscal 2036.

The players

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

A nonpartisan federal agency that provides budget and economic information to Congress.

Scott Bessent

U.S. Treasury Secretary who has set a goal of reducing the deficit to around 3% of economic output.

Donald Trump

Former U.S. President whose economic policies are seen as worsening the country's fiscal picture.

Kevin Warsh

Potential nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, whose policies could impact interest rates and the deficit.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The U.S. budget deficit will grow slightly in fiscal 2026 to $1.853 trillion, the Congressional Budget Office forecast on Wednesday, showing that on balance, President ‌Donald Trump's economic policies are worsening the country's fiscal picture amid low economic growth.”

— Congressional Budget Office (Reuters)

What’s next

The CBO's projections will likely spur debate in Congress and the administration over how to address the growing budget deficit, with potential proposals ranging from spending cuts to tax increases.

The takeaway

The CBO's bleak budget deficit projections underscore the significant fiscal challenges facing the U.S. government, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio expected to remain well above the Treasury Secretary's target over the next decade. Policymakers will need to carefully consider a range of options to rein in the deficit and put the country on a more sustainable fiscal path.