Trump Tariffs Predicted To Cost American Families $1,300 in 2026

New report finds Trump's trade policy represents the largest tax hike since 1993.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, President Donald Trump's tariffs are projected to cost American households an average of $1,300 per year by 2026, representing the largest U.S. tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993. The report states that Trump's trade policy has resulted in a tenfold increase in the average U.S. tariff rate over the past year.

Why it matters

Critics argue that Trump's tariffs create economic uncertainty, alienate key trading partners, and primarily burden U.S. businesses and consumers rather than foreign companies or governments. The administration maintains the tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industry and address trade imbalances, with the revenue potentially used to reduce deficits or fund other priorities.

The details

The Tax Foundation analysis found that Trump's second-term tariffs represent the 'largest U.S. tax increase as a percent of GDP' since the 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. The weighted-average applied tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to increase from 1.5% in 2022 to 13.5% by 2026, excluding tariffs imposed through emergency powers. This is expected to raise over $2 trillion in revenue over the next decade, though accounting for negative economic effects would reduce that to $1.6 trillion. The tax increases are spread across all income groups, with the top 1% seeing a smaller reduction in after-tax income.

  • The Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision 'soon' on whether the president's emergency powers allow him to impose tariffs in this manner.
  • Attempts in Congress to repeal Trump's tariffs are moving ahead after a handful of Republicans joined House Democrats to block measures that would have banned challenges to the duties through July 31.

The players

Tax Foundation

A nonprofit think tank that tends to advocate for lower taxes and conducted the analysis on the economic impact of Trump's tariffs.

Donald Trump

The former president who imposed and threatened a variety of tariffs over the course of his first term in office.

Kush Desai

A White House spokesman who responded to the Tax Foundation report on behalf of the administration.

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What they’re saying

“Economists generally agree free trade increases the level of economic output and income, while conversely, trade barriers reduce economic output and income. Historical evidence shows tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, resulting in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.”

— Tax Foundation (Tax Foundation report)

“America's average tariff rate has increased by nearly tenfold in the past year – while inflation has actually cooled, real wages have risen, GDP growth has accelerated, and trillions in investments continue pouring in to make and hire in America.”

— Kush Desai, White House spokesman (ABC News)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is now assessing whether the president's emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grant him the authority to impose tariffs in the manner he has over the past year, and is expected to issue a decision 'soon', according to the Tax Foundation. Meanwhile, attempts in Congress to repeal Trump's tariffs are moving ahead after a handful of Republicans joined House Democrats to block measures that would have banned challenges to the duties through July 31.

The takeaway

Trump's tariffs, which represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993, are projected to cost the average American household $1,300 per year by 2026. While the administration argues the tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industry, critics contend they create economic uncertainty, alienate trading partners, and primarily burden U.S. businesses and consumers.