Heavy Rains Forecast to Bring Flood Risk to Central US

Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee could see 3-5 inches of rain Friday through Sunday

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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A slow-moving storm system is expected to bring widespread heavy rainfall across the south-central United States from Friday through Sunday, increasing the risk of flash flooding across multiple states this weekend. Forecast rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible across portions of the Central Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and mid-South, with locally higher amounts where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Why it matters

Heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding could impact major travel corridors and disrupt daily life for residents across the affected region. Saturated soils and repeated downpours could lead to rapid runoff and flooding, especially in low-lying and poor-drainage locations.

The details

According to the National Weather Service, the highest rainfall potential is expected Friday night into Saturday, followed by another round of heavy rain Saturday night, particularly across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and northern Texas. The NWS warns that the impacts may occur overnight when flooding is harder to detect, and urban areas, creeks, and small rivers may respond quickly, while rural roadways could become impassable with little warning.

  • The storm system and associated frontal boundaries will track from the Four Corners region into the Mississippi Valley, producing rounds of rain from Friday morning through Sunday morning.
  • The highest rainfall potential is expected Friday night into Saturday, followed by another round of heavy rain Saturday night.

The players

National Weather Service

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts, and warnings for the United States.

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What they’re saying

“The NWS warns that saturated soils and repeated downpours could lead to rapid runoff and flash flooding, especially in low-lying and poor-drainage locations.”

— National Weather Service (countryherald.com)

“Residents across the affected region are encouraged to monitor forecasts, enable weather alerts, and review flood safety plans ahead of the weekend.”

— National Weather Service (countryherald.com)

What’s next

Additional watches or warnings may be issued as the system evolves.

The takeaway

This weather system has the potential to cause significant disruptions and safety concerns across the central United States, underscoring the importance of being prepared and heeding weather warnings in order to protect lives and property.