Immigrant Surge Boosts GOP States' Population, Potentially Shifting House Seats

Republican-led states like Florida and Texas could gain congressional seats, while Democratic strongholds like California and New York may lose representation.

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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The millions of immigrants who have crossed the border with Mexico since 2020 could change the balance of political power in Congress, likely boosting Republican states that emphasize border security, at the expense of more welcoming Democratic states. Many of the new immigrants joined state-to-state movers gravitating to the fast-growing conservative strongholds of Florida and Texas, while California and New York also had large influxes from the border but ended up losing population.

Why it matters

The shift in population changes threatens to scramble the Electoral College map, as the Constitution allocates congressional representation by population - including noncitizens. Several experts predict that after the next census in 2030, Republican-led states could gain House seats while Democratic states in the Northeast and West could lose them.

The details

According to forecasts, California is likely to lose four House seats, while Texas is likely to gain four. Florida could gain three or four seats, while Illinois and New York each would lose one or two. The new census estimates show the lion's share of new immigration since 2020 going to Florida, Texas, California, New York and New Jersey, with hundreds of thousands also going to other states. Many of the migrants who landed in California and New York ended up moving to Texas and Florida, where there were more jobs and affordable housing available.

  • The millions of immigrants crossed the border with Mexico since 2020.
  • The next decennial census is scheduled for 2030.
  • Border crossings from Mexico were at their lowest level in 50 years in fiscal 2025.

The players

Jonathan Cervas

An assistant teaching professor at Carnegie Mellon University who provided a forecast for 2030 House seat changes.

Adam Kincaid

The president and executive director of the GOP-founded American Redistricting Project, who provided a forecast for 2030 House seat changes.

William Frey

A demographer at The Brookings Institution who provided a forecast for 2030 House seat changes.

Jed Kolko

An economist and undersecretary for economic affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce during the Biden administration.

Richard Doty

A research demographer with the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

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What they’re saying

“The humanitarian migrants were more likely to come over the border and then settle in places anecdotally known for providing services, like New York City and Denver.”

— Jed Kolko, Economist and undersecretary for economic affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce during the Biden administration

“My guess is, if this continues, Texas and Florida would benefit less in Electoral College gains. If immigration remains sharply curtailed, Texas could gain only three seats and California could lose only three.”

— William Frey, Demographer at The Brookings Institution

“Florida is no longer the bargain it once was. The cost of housing in particular is driving young people and retirees to other states.”

— Richard Doty, Research demographer with the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.