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Nuclear Disarmament Crisis Deepens Amid Rising Mistrust
But signs of progress, including nuclear-weapon-free zones and youth engagement, offer cautious hope, UN researcher says.
Published on Feb. 7, 2026
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The global system governing nuclear disarmament is facing its most serious crisis in decades, driven by growing mistrust among major powers. Key arms control agreements have expired or been abandoned, leaving the non-proliferation regime increasingly fragile. However, the UN researcher also highlighted areas of progress, including the spread of nuclear-weapon-free zones and growing youth engagement questioning the role of nuclear weapons.
Why it matters
The unraveling of the nuclear arms control architecture raises the specter of a renewed nuclear arms race, increasing the risk of miscalculation and potential catastrophic consequences. At the same time, the emergence of new technologies like hypersonic weapons and AI-driven systems adds further complexity and danger to the situation.
The details
Major powers like the US and Russia have failed to replace the expired New START treaty, which had capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Statements by the US about potentially resuming certain forms of nuclear testing have also raised alarm, as such moves could undermine the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. New technologies like hypersonic weapons and autonomous systems are accelerating arms competition and increasing the risk of miscalculation.
- The 2010 US-Russia New START accord expired this week without a successor in place.
- The next review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is scheduled for April-May 2026 in New York.
The players
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
A fellow with the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), an autonomous institute studying disarmament and international security issues.
What they’re saying
“The situation right now is very difficult. We are observing the disintegration of the arms control architecture that was built primarily through negotiations between [the then] Soviet Union - and subsequently Russia - and the United States.”
— Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, UNIDIR fellow (Mirage News)
“We are back to a period of severe mistrust between the major actors - arguably worse than during the Cold War.”
— Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, UNIDIR fellow (Mirage News)
What’s next
The next review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is scheduled for April-May 2026 in New York, where the future of the global nuclear disarmament regime will be a key focus.
The takeaway
While the nuclear arms control system is in crisis, the spread of nuclear-weapon-free zones and growing youth engagement questioning the role of nuclear weapons offer grounds for cautious hope. However, the unraveling of key agreements and the emergence of new technologies pose serious risks that will require concerted international cooperation to address.
