Ranchers Struggle to Grow Cattle Herds Despite Record Beef Prices

Drought, high costs, and industry dynamics make it difficult for ranchers to expand production to meet demand.

Apr. 16, 2026 at 9:36am

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A minimalist illustration using bold primary-colored geometric shapes and clean lines to conceptually represent the supply and demand challenges in the beef industry, without any literal depictions of cattle, money, or other specific economic elements.Geometric abstraction captures the complex economic forces shaping the beef industry's supply and demand dynamics.Mandan Today

Despite record-high beef prices, ranchers across the U.S. are reluctant to grow their cattle herds, which are at the smallest size in over 75 years. Factors like persistent drought, high feed and operating costs, and industry dynamics are making it challenging for ranchers to increase production to meet the strong demand for beef.

Why it matters

The small cattle herd size is a key driver behind the soaring beef prices that consumers are facing. Expanding the national herd would help increase beef supply and potentially bring down prices, but ranchers are hesitant to do so due to the significant risks and costs involved.

The details

Ranchers like Stephanie Hatzenbuhler in North Dakota face a difficult decision each spring as their cows give birth to new calves - whether to retain the calves to grow the herd, or sell them to be slaughtered. While increasing herd size could make sense economically, ranchers are grappling with factors like drought that have forced them to "liquidate" cows, as well as high feed and operating costs that make expansion risky. The U.S. cattle herd has fallen from a high of 132 million head in 1975 to just 86 million this year, even as beef production has reached record levels through improved genetics and feeding techniques. Exports of about 2.5 billion pounds of beef in 2025 have also tightened domestic supply.

  • The U.S. cattle herd reached a high of 132 million head in 1975.
  • The U.S. cattle herd is currently at 86 million head as of 2026.
  • About 2.5 billion pounds of beef were exported from the U.S. in 2025.

The players

Stephanie Hatzenbuhler

A rancher who operates the Diamond J Angus ranch near Mandan, North Dakota, where she will make decisions this spring about whether to retain or sell the 700 calves born on her family's 2,000-acre property.

Tim Petry

A livestock marketing specialist at North Dakota State University who notes that while beef production has reached record levels, the tight remaining supply and high demand have caused record prices for consumers.

Bernt Nelson

An economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation who explains that drought conditions have forced ranchers to incur high costs to truck in feed and water, making it difficult for them to expand their herds.

Warren Rusche

An extension feedlot specialist at South Dakota State University who says the closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to livestock imports to slow the spread of a flesh-eating parasite has stopped about 1 million cattle from being brought into the U.S., further tightening supply.

Mike Williams

A California rancher who says that while beef prices are finally at a "fair" level, the high costs of getting into the business would discourage new entrants.

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What they’re saying

“You've got to have rain. You've got to have grass to keep cows on because they're out on pastures for over half the year, and so that's been the dilemma, is we had forced liquidation of cows.”

— Tim Petry, Livestock Marketing Specialist, North Dakota State University

“When these pasture conditions deteriorate, and water becomes an issue, some of these states have to go as far as to haul hay, haul water from other regions of the country that have grass and easy access to water, and that adds a significant cost to operations.”

— Bernt Nelson, Economist, American Farm Bureau Federation

“If you're a young guy and want to get in, it's probably not the time to do it, but if you're kind of established and been doing this for a while, you're doing good.”

— Stephanie Hatzenbuhler, Rancher, Diamond J Angus

“I would say that we're finally maybe getting a fair price. I think people are starting to realize the value of beef, and they're finding that they're willing to pay maybe a little more than they have in the past for the quality of the product that they're getting.”

— Mike Williams, California Rancher

What’s next

Ranchers will continue to face difficult decisions this spring about whether to retain calves to grow their herds or sell them for slaughter. The impact of these choices, as well as ongoing drought conditions and industry dynamics, will determine if and when beef prices may start to come down for consumers.

The takeaway

Despite record-high beef prices, ranchers are hesitant to significantly expand their cattle herds due to the substantial risks and costs involved, including persistent drought, high feed and operating expenses, and industry consolidation. This means consumers are likely to continue facing elevated beef prices in the near future as demand outpaces supply.