Ranchers Struggle to Expand Cattle Herds Amid High Beef Prices

Drought, feed costs, and processing bottlenecks make it difficult for ranchers to grow their herds despite record-high beef prices.

Apr. 16, 2026 at 7:03am

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An abstract illustration using bold geometric shapes and primary colors to conceptually represent the supply, demand, and pricing dynamics in the beef industry.Geometric patterns illustrate the complex economic forces driving record-high beef prices despite ranchers' struggles to expand cattle herds.Mandan Today

Beef prices in the U.S. have reached record highs, but ranchers say it's not easy for them to simply expand their cattle herds to meet the increased demand. Factors like persistent drought, high feed costs, and processing bottlenecks are making it challenging for ranchers to grow their operations, even as consumers face soaring prices at the grocery store.

Why it matters

The size of the U.S. cattle herd is a key factor in determining beef prices, but ranchers are reluctant to expand their herds due to the various economic and environmental pressures they face. This dynamic is contributing to the continued high cost of beef, which is impacting consumers across the country.

The details

The U.S. cattle herd has declined from a high of 132 million head in 1975 to just 86 million this year. While ranchers are now able to produce more meat per animal, the tight supply combined with strong export demand has driven beef prices to record levels. Ranchers like Stephanie Hatzenbuhler in North Dakota face tough decisions on whether to retain more calves for breeding or sell them off, with factors like drought and feed costs weighing heavily. The closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to livestock imports has also contributed to the supply crunch. Meanwhile, the meat processing industry has faced criticism from ranchers, but the industry argues that consolidation has not increased and that retailers, not packers, set consumer prices.

  • The U.S. cattle herd reached a high of 132 million head in 1975.
  • The U.S. cattle herd is currently at 86 million head in 2026.
  • The U.S. is expected to produce around 26 billion pounds of beef in 2026.

The players

Stephanie Hatzenbuhler

A rancher who operates the Diamond J Angus ranch near Mandan, North Dakota, and is facing decisions on whether to expand her herd of around 700 cattle.

Tim Petry

A livestock marketing specialist at North Dakota State University who notes that while the cattle herd is much smaller, improved genetics and feeding techniques have allowed for record beef production.

Bernt Nelson

An economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation who explains how drought and high feed costs are making it difficult for ranchers to expand their herds.

The Meat Institute

A trade group representing meat processors that argues the industry's concentration ratio has not changed appreciably and that retailers, not packers, set consumer prices.

John Robinson

A spokesman for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association who says the reasons for high beef prices are complex and not solely due to meat processor consolidation.

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What they’re saying

“You've got to have rain. You've got to have grass to keep cows on because they're out on pastures for over half the year, and so that's been the dilemma, is we had forced liquidation of cows.”

— Tim Petry, Livestock marketing specialist, North Dakota State University

“When these pasture conditions deteriorate, and water becomes an issue, some of these states have to go as far as to haul hay, haul water from other regions of the country that have grass and easy access to water, and that adds a significant cost to operations.”

— Bernt Nelson, Economist, American Farm Bureau Federation

“Rhetoric about beef industry concentration implies that consolidation in the beef packing sector is ongoing and that market power is becoming increasingly concentrated. That is not the case.”

— The Meat Institute

What’s next

Ranchers will continue to face difficult decisions on herd sizes as they weigh factors like drought, feed costs, and processing capacity. Consumers can expect beef prices to remain elevated in the near term, with little relief in sight unless these challenges are addressed.

The takeaway

The high cost of beef is not simply a matter of meat processors exerting market power, but a complex interplay of environmental, economic, and supply chain factors that have made it difficult for ranchers to expand their herds to meet growing demand. Addressing these challenges will be crucial to bringing down prices for consumers.