Trump Faces Midterm Trouble as Immigration Ratings Plummet

Public approval of Trump's handling of border security and immigration has sharply declined, posing a challenge for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

President Donald Trump is facing a stark political reality just months before the midterms, as public approval on his handling of immigration and border security has plunged to new lows. A new NBC News Decision Desk Poll shows that 49% of adults now strongly disapprove of how Trump has handled these issues, up sharply from 38% in August and 34% in April. The decline in support was fueled largely by independents, among whom the proportion expressing strong disapproval has jumped 11 points since August. Overall, 60% say they somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump's actions on border security and immigration, while only 27% strongly approve, down from 31% in August.

Why it matters

Immigration has in the past been a winning issue for Republicans, but polls now suggest the public is not aligned with the government on the issue. This could pose a challenge for the GOP as it tries to defend its slim majority in the midterm elections. The polling is a warning sign for the Trump administration, as the public's negative views on immigration and border security could hurt Republican candidates in key races.

The details

The decline in support was fueled largely by independents, among whom the proportion expressing strong disapproval has jumped 11 points since August. Overall, 60% also said they somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump's actions on border security and immigration. Meanwhile, only 27% strongly approve, down from 31% in August. The NBC poll also showed Americans turning against ICE, with agency approval at 34%. Nearly three-quarters of Americans say ICE should be reformed or abolished, and 58% reject the notion that law-abiding citizens 'have nothing to fear' from federal immigration authorities.

  • The NBC News Decision Desk Poll was conducted between January 27 and February 6, 2026.
  • In August 2025, 38% of adults strongly disapproved of how Trump handled border security and immigration.
  • In April 2025, 34% of adults strongly disapproved of how Trump handled border security and immigration.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States.

Renee Good

A person who died in Minneapolis, whose death contributed to the decline in public approval of Trump's handling of immigration and border security.

Alex Pretti

A person who died in Minneapolis, whose death contributed to the decline in public approval of Trump's handling of immigration and border security.

Kristi Noem

The Homeland Security Secretary, who is facing calls to step down after characterizing both Pretti and Good as having posed a violent threat to federal agents, claims that have been disputed by video evidence and witness accounts.

Tom Homan

The White House border czar, who revealed that hundreds of federal immigration agents would be withdrawn from Minneapolis.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“President Trump was overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

— Davis Ingle, White House spokesperson (The Daily Beast)

“The people want law and order. And we have a solid majority. You know, we have a silent majority of people. They don't go and riot and everything else. But they like what we're doing.”

— Donald Trump (The Daily Beast)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.