Trump's Immigration Crackdown Fractures MAGA Base, Analysts Say

Chaotic enforcement operations in Minneapolis seen as 'Trump's Katrina' moment

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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As federal immigration officers continue aggressive operations in Minneapolis, analysts say the chaos and violence is fracturing President Trump's core MAGA base of support, with nearly two-thirds of Americans saying the crackdown has gone 'too far.' Journalists Greg Sargent and Alex Shephard argue that the Minneapolis operations could become 'Trump's Katrina,' similar to former President George W. Bush's disastrous response to Hurricane Katrina, and that the administration's refusal to reverse course is already splintering the president's coalition of devout loyalists and complicit Republicans.

Why it matters

Trump's hardline immigration policies have been a cornerstone of his political brand, but the chaotic and sometimes violent enforcement actions are now alienating even members of his own base. The fallout in Minneapolis could signal a broader collapse of support for the president's agenda.

The details

Sargent and Shephard said on The New Republic's 'Daily Blast' podcast that the aggressive immigration crackdown, including deportation efforts targeting young children, has already begun to fracture Trump's core MAGA base. They noted that a growing number of Republican lawmakers have even called on the president to apologize for posting a racist video depicting the Obamas as primates, seen as another sign of his eroding coalition.

  • Federal immigration officers have continued aggressive operations in Minneapolis in recent months.
  • Polls show nearly two-thirds of Americans say Trump's immigration crackdown has gone 'too far.'

The players

Greg Sargent

Journalist who co-hosts The New Republic's 'Daily Blast' podcast.

Alex Shephard

Journalist who co-hosts The New Republic's 'Daily Blast' podcast.

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What they’re saying

“I think I'm not the first to say this, but it's sure looking like Minneapolis is going to be kind of akin to Trump's Katrina.”

— Greg Sargent, Journalist (The New Republic)

“I think that we're not even close to seeing the bottom here yet, but it's really, really starting to break.”

— Alex Shephard, Journalist (The New Republic)

The takeaway

Trump's hardline immigration policies, a core part of his political brand, are now fracturing his base of support as chaotic enforcement actions in Minneapolis are seen as a 'Katrina-like' moment that could signal a broader collapse of the president's coalition.