Corn Holds Steady as Crude Oil Prices Slide

Fertilizer shortages and rising ethanol demand could provide long-term support for corn prices.

Apr. 15, 2026 at 1:22am

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A minimalist abstract illustration using bold geometric shapes and primary colors to represent the complex factors influencing the corn market, including supply, demand, and price trends.Corn prices hold steady as fertilizer shortages and biofuel demand create long-term market support.Chicago Today

Corn futures have held up even as crude oil prices have sold off, bucking the typical trend. Analysts cite factors like fertilizer shortages and increased ethanol demand in Brazil as potential drivers of long-term support for the corn market.

Why it matters

Corn is a crucial agricultural commodity with wide-ranging implications. Shifts in corn prices can impact food prices, biofuel production, and the profitability of farming operations. Understanding the factors influencing the corn market is important for consumers, policymakers, and industry participants.

The details

According to senior market strategist Stephen Davis of Walsh Trading, the ongoing shortage and high prices of fertilizer could lead to less-than-ideal fertilizer use and lower corn yields, signaling long-term support for the corn market. Brazil, the world's third-largest corn producer, is reportedly reducing its fertilizer use by 2 million tons this year, while also aiming to increase the ethanol blend in its fuel supply to 32% in the first half of 2026 due to higher fossil fuel costs.

  • Corn futures are currently trading below their 200-day moving average.
  • The Midwest and Gulf corn basis is strong as farmers prioritize planting over selling cash grain.

The players

Stephen Davis

Senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., a Chicago-based firm.

Alexandre Silveira

Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy, who has announced plans to raise the ethanol blend in the country's fuel supply.

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What they’re saying

“A complicating factor is the ongoing shortage and high prices of fertilizer. This could lead to less-than-ideal use of fertilizer and lower corn yields, signaling long-term support for the corn market, in my opinion.”

— Stephen Davis, Senior Market Strategist

“The government wants to raise the ethanol blend to 32% in the first half of the year, citing higher costs for fossil ​fuels as oil prices surge following conflict in Iran.”

— Alexandre Silveira, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy

What’s next

The good news is that rain is headed into the dry corn growing areas of the Midwest this week and possibly next week, which could help improve soil moisture ahead of the planting season.

The takeaway

The corn market is facing a complex set of factors, including fertilizer shortages, increased ethanol demand, and weather patterns, that could provide long-term support for corn prices despite the recent sell-off in crude oil.