Josh Pate Sees Bleak Outlook for Florida State's 2026 Season

Analyst says Seminoles will struggle to be even mediocre this year

Apr. 17, 2026 at 9:20pm

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A fragmented, geometric painting depicting a Florida State Seminoles football game, with the players and field broken down into sharp, overlapping planes of color and shape, conceptually representing the team's lack of cohesion and top-tier talent.A cubist interpretation of the struggles facing the Florida State Seminoles football program, as outlined by analyst Josh Pate.Tallahassee Today

College football analyst Josh Pate provided a grim assessment of Florida State's prospects for the 2026 season, saying the Seminoles will have a hard time being even mediocre this year. Pate noted that if Florida State had the same schedule as rival Florida, their projected win total would drop to just 4.5 games, second-lowest in the SEC.

Why it matters

Florida State has struggled in recent years under head coach Mike Norvell, and Pate believes the Seminoles' overreliance on the transfer portal has left them with a roster lacking in top-tier talent. This could spell trouble for the program as it tries to rebuild and return to relevance in the ACC.

The details

Pate said the Seminoles would need to "improve to be mediocre" in 2026, noting that "average is not the worst thing in the world, bad is the worst thing in the world." He explained that Florida State's Vegas win total of 6.5 games is misleading, as a tougher schedule would likely drop that number to 4.5 wins, which would be second-lowest in the SEC. Pate believes Norvell's transfer portal strategy has backfired, leaving the Seminoles without many elite-level players on the roster.

  • The comments were made on the latest episode of Josh Pate's College Football Show, which aired on April 17, 2026.

The players

Josh Pate

A college football analyst who provides commentary and analysis on the sport.

Mike Norvell

The head coach of the Florida State Seminoles football team.

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What they’re saying

“I think they've got to improve to be mediocre right now.”

— Josh Pate, College Football Analyst

“If we changed nothing about Florida State's team, but we give them Florida's schedule this year, their over/under win total would be 4.5... which would be second-lowest in the SEC behind only Arkansas.”

— Josh Pate, College Football Analyst

What’s next

Fans of the Florida State Seminoles will be hoping for a better-than-expected season in 2026, but Pate's analysis suggests the team has a long way to go to return to relevance in the ACC. All eyes will be on head coach Mike Norvell as he tries to turn the program around.

The takeaway

Josh Pate's bleak outlook for Florida State's 2026 season highlights the significant challenges facing the Seminoles program under head coach Mike Norvell. The team's reliance on the transfer portal appears to have backfired, leaving them with a roster lacking in top-tier talent. Noles fans may need to temper their expectations for the upcoming season.