Odds of Another Polar Vortex Split Impacting Florida Appear Low

Despite recent Arctic blasts, forecasts suggest Florida is unlikely to see another major freeze this winter.

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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Florida has endured an unusually cold winter with at least three rounds of Arctic air and even snow in some areas. This is due to a weaker polar vortex, which normally traps cold air in the far north. However, meteorologists say Florida is unlikely to see another headline-making freeze, as the key atmospheric patterns that deliver Arctic air are not aligned for a late-season blast. While a brief dip in temperatures is possible, widespread Arctic conditions appear unlikely based on current forecast models.

Why it matters

The repeated Arctic blasts and rare snowfall in Florida have been highly unusual and disruptive for the typically warm state. Understanding the likelihood of additional freezing weather is important for residents, businesses, and agriculture to prepare accordingly.

The details

Since early November, Florida has endured at least three rounds of Arctic air, with some cities in the Panhandle even seeing light snow. This unusual cold is attributed to a weaker polar vortex, which has allowed more Arctic air to spill southward. However, the key atmospheric patterns that deliver this cold air, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are not aligned for another major freeze. Models show the NAO is forecast to remain near neutral, while the AO is rebounding toward neutral, making sustained Arctic intrusions into Florida less likely.

  • Since early November, Florida has endured at least three rounds of Arctic air.
  • Marianna's total snowfall accumulation reached 1.3 inches, outpacing both Salt Lake City and Seattle.

The players

Judah Cohen

A research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who writes a weekly blog on Arctic oscillation and the polar vortex.

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What they’re saying

“There are signs the polar vortex could become active again in late February or early March — but that does not automatically mean another major freeze for Florida.”

— Judah Cohen, Research scientist (palmbeachpost.com)

What’s next

Meteorologists are watching a recent 'Canadian warming' event in the stratosphere, which can sometimes disrupt or stretch the polar vortex, allowing colder air to spill south into North America. Current forecast models suggest the vortex may become elongated again in the coming weeks rather than fully breaking down in a dramatic sudden stratospheric warming.

The takeaway

While Florida has endured an unusually cold winter so far, the atmospheric patterns that have driven the Arctic blasts appear to be shifting, making another major freeze in the state unlikely. However, residents and businesses should still prepare for the possibility of brief dips in temperatures, especially in inland and rural areas.