Quarterbacks Taken No. 1 Struggle to Reach Super Bowl Success

Recent history shows the road to the Lombardi Trophy is far from a straight path, even for teams that land a big name QB at No. 1.

Apr. 14, 2026 at 1:49am

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A cubist-style painting depicting a football quarterback in motion, broken down into sharp, overlapping geometric shapes and planes in vibrant team colors, conveying the complex and fragmented journey for top draft picks to find sustained success in the NFL.A conceptual illustration capturing the challenges and pressures facing highly touted NFL quarterback prospects, whose paths to Super Bowl success are rarely straightforward.Miami Gardens Today

Of the 19 quarterbacks taken first overall in the NFL draft this century, only Eli Manning has won a Super Bowl with his original team. Just three others have even made the big game with their original team, each losing in their only appearance. The Raiders, who have the first pick in the 2026 draft, are hoping to avoid a similar fate with Fernando Mendoza, the expected top selection.

Why it matters

The difficulty for No. 1 overall QB picks to find sustained success highlights the challenges in evaluating and developing talent at the most important position in the sport. Teams are often willing to take a chance on a QB early, but the pressure and expectations can be immense, leading to quick turnover and a lack of continuity.

The details

Recent history shows that even highly touted quarterback prospects taken first overall have struggled to find Super Bowl success with their original teams. Of the 19 QBs taken No. 1 since 2000, only Eli Manning won a championship with the team that drafted him, and that was after a draft-day trade. Just three others - Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Baker Mayfield - even made it to the Super Bowl, each losing their only appearance. Additionally, five of the last five No. 1 overall QBs didn't last until age 30 with their original teams.

  • Since 2000, 19 quarterbacks have been taken first overall in the NFL draft.
  • Eli Manning won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him, the New York Giants.
  • Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Baker Mayfield made the Super Bowl with their original teams, but lost.
  • The last five quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall did not last until age 30 with their original teams.
  • The Raiders have the first pick in the 2026 NFL draft and are expected to select Fernando Mendoza.

The players

Fernando Mendoza

The Indiana quarterback who is widely expected to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft by the Las Vegas Raiders.

Eli Manning

The only quarterback taken No. 1 overall this century to win a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him, the New York Giants.

Cam Newton

The quarterback taken No. 1 overall in 2011 who led the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl, but lost.

Andrew Luck

The quarterback taken No. 1 overall in 2012 who led the Indianapolis Colts to the Super Bowl, but lost.

Baker Mayfield

The quarterback taken No. 1 overall in 2018 who led the Cleveland Browns to the Super Bowl, but lost.

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What they’re saying

“It's hard to identify and evaluate quarterbacks, but probably the bigger picture, these teams all earn the No. 1 pick, so you're going into a rough situation. If you don't get a chance to have continuity to settle in, to be with a talented team, then it's a major, major stress on your physical and mental toughness.”

— Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network draft analyst

“Obviously, the Super Bowl is the ultimate goal, but it does make it more difficult the two dynasties that just ran concurrently. If that's what we're judging quarterbacks by, almost every quarterback in the NFL is a failure because Brady and Mahomes have dominated it for so long.”

— Matt Miller, ESPN draft analyst

“I think you want to limit the amount of pressure you have on (a rookie QB) from the start.”

— John Spytek, Las Vegas Raiders general manager

What’s next

The Raiders will look to ease Fernando Mendoza into the starting role, signing veteran Kirk Cousins to likely be the starter next season. However, Mendoza will still face intense scrutiny as the expected No. 1 overall pick.

The takeaway

The struggles of recent No. 1 overall quarterbacks to find sustained success, even Super Bowl wins, with their original teams highlights the immense pressure and difficulty in evaluating and developing talent at the most important position in the NFL. Teams continue to take chances on top QB prospects, but must balance expectations and provide the right environment for them to thrive.