US Profits, Global Public Spending, and the New Nuclear Arms Race

Chartbook Newsletter explores economic trends, human capital investment, and the shifting nuclear landscape

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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The latest edition of Adam Tooze's Chartbook Newsletter covers a range of economic and geopolitical topics, including analysis of US corporate profits, global public spending on education and healthcare, and the resurgence of the nuclear arms race following the expiration of the New START treaty.

Why it matters

These issues are crucial for understanding the current state of the global economy, the future of human capital development, and the escalating tensions around nuclear weapons. Tooze's insights provide important context for policymakers, investors, and the general public.

The details

The newsletter examines a new academic paper that constructs a historical database on public expenditure and revenue, with a focus on education and healthcare spending. The data shows large and persistent inequalities, with public education spending per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa at just 3% of the level in Europe and North America in 2025. The paper also finds that human capital expenditure strongly correlates with productivity growth, especially in poorer countries. Additionally, the newsletter covers the expiration of the New START treaty and the resulting resurgence of nuclear competition, with the weapons stockpiles of major powers not included in the treaty.

  • The New START treaty expired in 2026.
  • The academic paper analyzed public expenditure and revenue data from 1800 to 2025.

The players

Adam Tooze

The author of the Chartbook Newsletter, an economist and historian who specializes in global economic and financial history.

Nitin Bharti, Amory Gethin, Thanasak Jenmana, Zhexun Mo, Thomas Piketty, Li Yang

The authors of the academic paper on public expenditure and human capital investment.

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What they’re saying

“Human capital expenditure has grown substantially, but with large and persistent inequalities. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 at purchasing power parity, compared to 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950.”

— Nitin Bharti, Amory Gethin, Thanasak Jenmana, Zhexun Mo, Thomas Piketty, Li Yang, Authors of the academic paper (Chartbook Newsletter)

What’s next

The Chartbook Newsletter will likely continue to provide in-depth analysis of the economic and geopolitical trends covered in this edition, including updates on the state of the nuclear arms race and the global efforts to address inequalities in human capital investment.

The takeaway

Tooze's Chartbook Newsletter offers a comprehensive and insightful look at the complex economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape, providing valuable context for policymakers, investors, and the general public.