Trump Claims Inflation Victory Despite Prices Remaining High

Republican strategists warn Trump's mixed messaging on the economy risks creating a credibility gap ahead of the midterm elections.

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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In a series of economic speeches, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that inflation has been defeated and prices are falling, even as data shows inflation near 3% over the past year and Americans continue to feel the strain of higher prices for groceries, gas, and other essentials. Republican strategists warn that Trump's disconnect from voters' lived experiences risks undermining the GOP's economic message ahead of the crucial midterm elections.

Why it matters

Trump's claims of victory over inflation are at odds with the reality that many Americans are still struggling with high prices, which could hurt Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm elections when control of Congress is at stake. The president's mixed messaging and tendency to veer off into unrelated topics also risks creating a credibility gap that could further damage the party's economic arguments.

The details

A Reuters review of five recent economic speeches by Trump found that he asserted inflation had been beaten or was way down almost 20 times, and said prices were falling almost 30 times. However, data shows inflation near 3% over the past year, with the prices of common goods like ground beef and coffee up significantly since Trump took office. Trump has also spent nearly half his speaking time on grievances and other issues unrelated to prices, including lengthy attacks on Somali Americans and Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar.

  • Trump was elected in 2024 in part due to voter unhappiness with President Biden's handling of inflation, which spiked to over 9% in 2022.
  • In the 12 months through December 2025, food costs were up over 3%, while average hourly earnings were up only 1.1% year over year.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who has cast himself as the Republican Party's chief messenger on the cost of living in the 2026 election year.

Rob Godfrey

A Republican strategist who warned that Trump "must be disciplined and focused" on the economy, as his mixed messaging risks creating a credibility gap for the GOP.

Ilhan Omar

A progressive, high-profile Democratic and Muslim congresswoman from Minnesota who has been a frequent critic of Trump, especially over his immigration policies.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, Grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.