Trump Touts Tariffs as 'Economic Miracle,' But Facts Tell a Different Story

Analysis finds mixed results from Trump's trade policies, with some economic gains but also higher inflation and trade deficits.

Published on Feb. 6, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

In a recent opinion piece, former President Donald Trump claimed his tariffs have created an 'American economic miracle.' However, an analysis of the facts shows a more complicated picture, with the U.S. economy performing strongly in parts of 2025 but also experiencing higher inflation and trade deficits related to the tariffs.

Why it matters

Trump's claims about the success of his trade policies are a key part of his economic legacy and narrative around his second term. This fact check provides important context and nuance around the actual economic impacts of the tariffs, which have been a subject of debate among economists.

The details

The analysis finds that while the U.S. economy grew at a healthy pace for parts of 2025, this was accompanied by a surge in imports early in the year as companies rushed to buy foreign products before potential new tariffs, as well as higher inflation, especially in core goods prices. The impact of the tariffs is also disputed, with one study cited by Trump finding that U.S. consumers bore around 43% of the tariff costs, contrary to Trump's claim that foreign producers paid at least 80% of the costs.

  • In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP actually shrank as imports surged ahead of potential new tariffs.
  • From April to June 2025, the economy grew at a 3.8% pace, and from July to September it grew 4.4%.
  • Annual core inflation for the final six months of 2025 was 2.6%, down from January 2025 but still about where it was in October 2024.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who is touting the success of his tariff policies in a recent opinion piece.

Alberto Cavallo

An economist at Harvard University who authored a study on the impact of tariffs cited by Trump, but which found that U.S. consumers bore around 43% of the tariff costs.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The data shows that the burden, or 'incidence,' of the tariffs has fallen overwhelmingly on foreign producers and middlemen, including large corporations that are not from the U.S. According to a recent study by the Harvard Business School, these groups are paying at least 80% of tariff costs.”

— Donald Trump (The Wall Street Journal)

“U.S. consumers were bearing roughly 43% of the tariff-induced border cost after seven months, with the remainder absorbed mostly by U.S. firms.”

— Alberto Cavallo, Economist, Harvard University (Email)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.