National Analyst Makes Ridiculous Statement About Reds' Current Roster

ESPN's Derek Carty's projection for the Reds' 2026 season is based on flawed analysis, according to the author.

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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ESPN.com's Derek Carty predicted the Cincinnati Reds to win under 82.5 games in the 2026 season, citing concerns about the team's pitching staff. The author of this article argues that Carty's reasoning is flawed, pointing to the consistent performance of Reds' pitchers like Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Chase Burns, as well as the depth of the team's pitching prospects.

Why it matters

This article highlights the ongoing debate between traditional scouting and advanced analytics in baseball, and how they can sometimes lead to differing conclusions about a team's outlook. The author's defense of the Reds' pitching staff challenges the narrative put forth by a prominent national analyst, potentially shaping perceptions of the team's chances in the upcoming season.

The details

Carty cited several reasons for his pessimistic projection on the Reds, including his belief that Andrew Abbott has been "lucky," that Nick Lodolo's stuff declined last season, and that Chase Burns represents a "significant injury risk." The author refutes these claims, arguing that Abbott has consistently outperformed his expected metrics, that Lodolo's 2025 season was his best yet, and that injury risk is a concern for all pitchers, not just Burns. The author also points out that the Reds have depth in their pitching prospects, which Carty failed to mention.

  • On Friday, ESPN.com's Derek Carty and Todd Zola put out a National League betting preview.
  • In 2025, Nick Lodolo made the most starts of his career, threw the most innings, and had the lowest ERA.
  • Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns (26) threw a bullpen session at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026.

The players

Derek Carty

An ESPN.com analyst who predicted the Cincinnati Reds to win under 82.5 games in the 2026 season.

Andrew Abbott

A Cincinnati Reds pitcher who has consistently outperformed his expected metrics over the past three seasons.

Nick Lodolo

A Cincinnati Reds pitcher who had the best season of his career in 2025, despite a perceived decline in his stuff.

Chase Burns

A Cincinnati Reds pitcher who, like all pitchers, faces injury risk, but should not be singled out as having a "significant injury risk" according to the author.

Paul Skenes

A Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher who was not mentioned in the article despite also throwing hard and facing injury risk.

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What they’re saying

“My projections are not sold on the Reds being an average MLB team, mostly due to question marks in their rotation. Andrew Abbott has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, Nick Lodolo's stuff declined after returning from injury last year and Chase Burns represents a significant injury risk. Throw in a weak bullpen, and this pitching staff nearly cracks the bottom five of projected staffs in baseball. THE BAT X projects 79.4 wins for Cincinnati, even after the addition of Eugenio Suarez.”

— Derek Carty (ESPN.com)

The takeaway

This article highlights the ongoing debate between traditional scouting and advanced analytics in baseball, and how they can sometimes lead to differing conclusions about a team's outlook. The author's defense of the Reds' pitching staff challenges the narrative put forth by a prominent national analyst, potentially shaping perceptions of the team's chances in the upcoming season.