Crowded Democratic Field in California Governor's Race Raises GOP Hopes

A large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The race for California governor has attracted a crowded field of Democratic candidates, raising concerns that the party's vote could be so divided that two Republicans could advance to the general election. This is due to California's 'top two' primary system, where the top two finishers regardless of party move on. While a long shot, the possibility of a Republican-only general election has Democrats worried and Republicans hopeful.

Why it matters

A Republican victory in the California governor's race would be a major political upset, as the state is considered a Democratic stronghold. It could have significant implications for down-ballot races, including control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The large number of Democratic candidates reflects both energy and frustration within the party as it seeks to rebound from recent losses.

The details

The California governor's race has attracted dozens of candidates, including at least nine prominent Democrats with the resources to seriously compete. This crowded field risks splitting the Democratic vote, making it mathematically possible that two Republicans could advance to the general election through the state's 'top two' primary system. While a long shot, Democratic strategists are concerned about this scenario, which would be a major political shock. Republicans are also worried about the vote-splitting issue and have called on some candidates to drop out to consolidate the GOP vote.

  • The California gubernatorial primary election will be held in June 2026.
  • The general election will take place in November 2026.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The current Democratic governor of California who is barred by law from seeking a third term.

Chad Bianco

The Riverside County Sheriff and a Republican candidate for governor.

Steve Hilton

A conservative commentator and Republican candidate for governor.

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What they’re saying

“There's a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November's ballot.”

— Katie Porter, Democratic gubernatorial candidate (Fundraising pitch)

“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in.”

— Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate (Recent debate)

What’s next

The June 2026 primary election will be a key test to see if the large Democratic field does indeed split the vote and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election.

The takeaway

The crowded Democratic field in the California governor's race highlights the party's energy and frustration, but also raises the risk of a historic upset if the vote is too divided. Both parties will be closely watching the primary to see if this unlikely scenario plays out.