Crowded Democratic Field in California Governor's Race Raises GOP Hopes

With many Democrats vying for the open seat, there are concerns the party could split its vote and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The race for California governor has attracted a large field of Democratic candidates, raising concerns that the party could divide its vote so much that two Republicans advance from the June primary to the November general election. This scenario is made possible by the state's 'top two' primary system, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and only the two top finishers move forward. While a long shot, the prospect of two Republicans on the ballot in the heavily Democratic state would be a political shock.

Why it matters

California is considered a Democratic stronghold, and a Republican victory in the governor's race would have significant implications, including for down-ballot congressional races that could determine control of the U.S. House. The large number of Democratic candidates reflects the party's energy and frustration, as well as the desire to find a national leader, but also raises the risk of vote-splitting.

The details

The Democratic field includes current and former members of Congress, billionaires, mayors, and other prominent figures. They are highlighting different attributes to stand out, such as Swalwell's role in Trump's impeachment trial and Mahan's criticism of the current governor on crime and homelessness. While some Democrats hope the field will narrow on its own, there is no clear mechanism to force lower-tier candidates to drop out.

  • The California gubernatorial primary election is scheduled for June 2026.
  • The general election will take place in November 2026.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The current Democratic governor of California, who is barred by law from seeking a third term.

Katie Porter

A Democratic U.S. Representative and gubernatorial candidate.

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic U.S. Representative and gubernatorial candidate.

Xavier Becerra

A former U.S. Representative who later served as the Biden administration's top health official, and is now a gubernatorial candidate.

Chad Bianco

The Republican Riverside County Sheriff and gubernatorial candidate.

Steve Hilton

A conservative commentator and Republican gubernatorial candidate.

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What they’re saying

“There's a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November's ballot.”

— Katie Porter, Democratic gubernatorial candidate

“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in.”

— Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate

“It's the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?”

— Paul Mitchell, Democratic consultant (AP News)

What’s next

The June 2026 primary election will determine which two candidates advance to the November general election.

The takeaway

The crowded Democratic field in the California governor's race raises the possibility of a rare Republican breakthrough in the heavily Democratic state, with the potential to impact down-ballot races and the balance of power in Congress. This scenario highlights the challenges of the state's 'top two' primary system and the need for Democrats to find ways to consolidate their support.