Emerging Stars Poised to Break Into 2026 Fantasy Baseball First Round

Analyzing 2025 ADP trends and year-end values to identify which players will deliver, disappoint, or rise in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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Historically, 55-60% of first-round fantasy baseball picks return first-round value in a given season, with injury volatility and pitching risk accounting for much of the dropoff. Looking at 2025's top 16 picks, 10 players delivered, 6 disappointed, and 4 emerged as legitimate risers for 2026. Analyzing skill growth indicators and opportunity, the article identifies 10 players primed to deliver first-round value, 6 likely to drop out, and 6 young stars poised to break into the 2026 first round.

Why it matters

The first-round pick is the foundation of any fantasy baseball team, so accurately projecting which players will meet, exceed, or fall short of first-round expectations is crucial for gaining an edge on the competition. This analysis provides a framework for identifying safe bets, potential busts, and breakout candidates to target in 2026 drafts.

The details

The article breaks down the 2025 first-round ADP list and final $ values to identify three key groups: Deliver, Drop, and Rise. In the Deliver group, 10 players returned first-round value, including power/speed combo Bobby Witt Jr., ace Tarik Skubal, and fantasy superstar Shohei Ohtani. The Drop group saw high-profile names like Aaron Judge, Ohtani (pitcher), and Fernando Tatis Jr. fall short due to injury risk and volatility. The Rise group featured surprise breakouts like Cal Raleigh, Geraldo Perdomo, and young sluggers Cristopher Sánchez and Garrett Crochet.

  • The 2026 fantasy baseball season will begin in April 2026.

The players

Bobby Witt Jr.

A young infielder who combines power, speed, and age-driven skill growth that profiles as repeat first-round value.

Shohei Ohtani

The two-way fantasy superstar, with elite production both on the mound and at the plate.

Aaron Judge

A dominant power hitter whose per-game production is elite, but missed games risk first-round value erosion.

Tarik Skubal

A young starting pitcher who delivered first-round value in 2025 and profiles as a stable fantasy ace.

Junior Caminero

A young slugger whose power growth and improving contact profile position him as a legitimate first-round riser.

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What they’re saying

“Forty-five home runs, 110 RBI and seven stolen bases as a bonus in his age-21 season? As his skills continue to develop, I see him improving that batting average and if he can bring it up a tick this year, he's a first-round stud.”

— Tom McFeeley, Fantasy Writer (athlonsports.com)

“When a young player matches a solid rookie season, you should be excited for the third campaign. Season two was very much a carbon copy of his debut in 2024. Like Caminero, if he can improve his average from .268, he will soon price himself out of Milwaukee.”

— Tom McFeeley, Fantasy Writer (athlonsports.com)

What’s next

Fantasy baseball players will closely monitor spring training performances and any injury updates as they prepare for their 2026 drafts. Key dates to watch include the release of updated 2026 ADP data in late February, as well as the start of the 2026 MLB season in April.

The takeaway

Identifying which first-round picks are primed to deliver, which are likely to disappoint, and which young stars are poised to break into the elite tier is crucial for gaining an edge in fantasy baseball drafts. This analysis provides a framework for targeting stability, avoiding risk, and capitalizing on emerging talent to build championship-caliber rosters in 2026.