Two Questions Can Predict Divorce With Surprising Accuracy, Research Finds

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Research from economists at the University of Virginia suggests that how couples answer just two questions about their partners' happiness levels can accurately predict their likelihood of divorce. The study of 3,597 couples found that those who believed their spouse would be worse off without them had lower divorce rates, while those who thought their partner would be happier apart had higher divorce rates. Couples who misunderstood their partner's feelings also had elevated divorce risks.

Why it matters

This research provides valuable insights into the core dynamics that underpin relationship stability. By understanding how partners view each other's happiness and the future of the marriage, couples can identify potential trouble spots and work to improve communication and mutual understanding - key factors in preventing divorce.

The details

The two key questions asked in the study were: 1) How do you think your level of happiness would be different if you and your partner separated? and 2) How do you think your partner's level of happiness would be different if you and your partner separated? Couples who believed their partner would be 'worse' or 'much worse' off had a 4.8% divorce rate, while those who thought their partner would be happier had a 12% divorce rate. The highest risk was for couples who misunderstood their partner's feelings - they had a 13-14% higher chance of divorce.

• The initial survey was conducted in 1987-88.
• Researchers followed up with the same couples about 6 years later.

What they’re saying

What’s next

Couples can use these insights to have open and honest discussions about their happiness levels and perceptions of each other's well-being within the relationship. Addressing any disconnects or misunderstandings could help strengthen the marriage and reduce divorce risk.