Lake Powell Faces Dire Water Outlook After Record-Hot March

Bureau of Reclamation and Colorado River states consider releasing water from Flaming Gorge to prop up declining reservoir levels.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 11:33pm

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A vast, atmospheric landscape painting in muted tones of grey, blue, and brown, with a distant horizon line and dramatic clouds overhead. The physical features of the land are dwarfed by the overwhelming scale of the natural environment, conveying a sense of the severe drought conditions impacting the Colorado River Basin.The Colorado River Basin faces an unprecedented water crisis, as record-breaking heat and drought push the region's vital reservoirs to the brink.Alta Today

After a record dry winter and a scorching March, the latest water outlook for Lake Powell and the greater Colorado River Basin shows an increasingly grim future. The April 1 forecast from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center predicts just 1.4 million acre-feet of inflow to Powell this April to July, only 22% of average. This dramatic drop from the March forecast could mean Powell drops below the 'power pool' level of 3,490 feet by the end of the year, preventing the Glen Canyon Dam from producing electricity. The Bureau of Reclamation and Colorado River states are now discussing options like reducing Powell outflows and releasing water from Flaming Gorge reservoir to try to prop up the declining levels.

Why it matters

The Colorado River system provides water to 40 million people across seven states and Mexico. With Lake Powell potentially dropping below critical infrastructure levels, this could have major impacts on water and power supplies for millions. The situation highlights the growing strain on the Colorado River due to climate change, drought, and increasing demand.

The details

The April 1 forecast from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center shows Powell will receive just 1.4 million acre-feet of inflow this April to July, a nearly 1 million acre-feet drop from the March forecast and only 22% of the average. This could mean Powell drops below the 'power pool' level of 3,490 feet by the end of 2026, preventing the Glen Canyon Dam from producing electricity. The Bureau of Reclamation is considering reducing Powell outflows from 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet, and also releasing up to 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs to try to keep Powell above critical levels. However, experts say even these measures may not be enough to prevent Powell from dropping below 3,500 feet, where infrastructure damage begins.

  • The Bureau of Reclamation will publish an updated study on the latest reservoir forecasts next week.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation plans to release details on its plans to keep Powell above critical elevations later this year.

The players

William Merkley

Manager of the Uintah Water Conservancy District.

Anne Castle

A senior fellow at the University of Colorado's Getches-Wilkinson Center.

Cody Moser

Forecaster with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Bureau of Reclamation

The federal agency responsible for managing water resources in the Western United States, including the Colorado River system.

Colorado River states

The seven states that share the Colorado River: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

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What they’re saying

“This water year is going to be extremely difficult.”

— William Merkley, Manager of the Uintah Water Conservancy District

“Those two tools taken together at those levels are not sufficient to prevent Lake Powell from going below 3,500, according to these most recent forecasts.”

— Anne Castle, Senior fellow at the University of Colorado's Getches-Wilkinson Center

“Flaming Gorge can only be called upon so many times before it joins lower river reservoirs with critically low elevations. It can provide real temporary benefits to help protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, but it is not the solution to the supply-and-demand imbalance we have on the river.”

— William Merkley, Manager of the Uintah Water Conservancy District

What’s next

The Bureau of Reclamation will publish an updated study next week with the latest reservoir forecasts, which will be followed later by details on the agency's plans to keep Powell above critical elevations.

The takeaway

The dire water outlook for Lake Powell highlights the growing strain on the Colorado River system due to climate change, drought, and increasing demand. While short-term measures like releasing water from upstream reservoirs may provide temporary relief, long-term solutions are needed to address the fundamental supply-demand imbalance and ensure the sustainability of this critical water resource.