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Santa Clara Today
By the People, for the People
Predicting Upsets in March Madness Round 1 Based on Prediction Markets
Analyzing Kalshi and Polymarket data to forecast the number of first-round upsets in the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Mar. 19, 2026 at 3:12pm
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The article analyzes real-time pricing in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to forecast the number of upsets expected in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. It examines historical data, key matchups, and market sentiment to provide a range of plausible upset scenarios, noting that the market may be underestimating the potential for chaos in the opening round.
Why it matters
March Madness is known for its unpredictability, with the first round often delivering a high number of upsets that can make or break tournament brackets. Understanding the dynamics behind upset projections in the prediction markets can help bettors and fans alike better navigate the volatility of the tournament.
The details
The article defines an 'upset' as any game where a lower-seeded team defeats a higher-seeded opponent, regardless of which team is favored by sportsbooks. Leading up to Selection Sunday, the market had expected as many as 9 upsets in the opening round, but that number has since come down to around 7, reflecting a perception that this year's field is more top-heavy. However, the author argues that the market may be underestimating the potential for chaos, noting several tightly-lined matchups and lower-seeded teams that could pull off surprises. The article examines the last 10 tournaments, where the average number of first-round upsets was 9.0, significantly higher than the 19% implied probability the market is currently pricing in for 9 or more upsets this year.
- The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament tips off in just about an hour.
- Last year's tournament saw limited early-round surprises, with all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four.
The players
Kalshi
A prediction market platform where users can trade contracts on the outcomes of future events.
Polymarket
Another prediction market platform where users can trade contracts on the outcomes of future events.
What’s next
The author suggests that the wider range of outcomes, particularly between 7 and 10 upsets, remains very much in play given historical trends and matchup dynamics. They recommend that traders and fans keep an open mind to the potential for chaos in the opening round of the tournament.
The takeaway
This analysis highlights the challenges in accurately predicting the number of upsets in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where the unpredictable nature of March Madness often leads to outcomes that defy market expectations. Understanding the distribution of possible outcomes, rather than focusing on a single consensus projection, can help bettors and fans better navigate the volatility of the tournament.
