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Santa Clara Today
By the People, for the People
Texas Basketball Bubble Watch: NCAA Tournament Odds, Path to the Dance With 1 Week Left
The Longhorns are battling for an NCAA Tournament bid in Sean Miller's first season as head coach.
Published on Mar. 6, 2026
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Despite a slow start to the season, the Texas Longhorns have emerged as a contender in the SEC and are now solidly in the NCAA Tournament field. With a 7-9 record in Quad 1 games and strong predictive metrics, Texas has built a solid resume, though they do have a few bad losses. The Longhorns' path to securing their spot in the tournament involves winning their final regular season game against Oklahoma and potentially winning at least one game in the SEC Tournament.
Why it matters
Making the NCAA Tournament would be a big accomplishment for the Longhorns in Sean Miller's first season as head coach, as they look to return to the Big Dance after missing out last year. Texas has the talent to potentially make a run in the tournament, but first they need to solidify their spot in the field.
The details
Texas started the season slowly under new head coach Sean Miller, but has emerged as a contender in the SEC. The Longhorns have a 7-9 record in Quad 1 games, including wins over Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, and NC State. However, they do have a bad Quad 3 loss to Mississippi State. Texas ranks 33rd in KenPom and 42nd in the Wins Above Bubble metric, putting them in good position on the bubble. To lock up their spot, the Longhorns need to beat Oklahoma in their final regular season game and potentially win at least one game in the SEC Tournament.
- Texas' final regular season game is against Oklahoma.
- The SEC Tournament will take place in the coming weeks.
The players
Sean Miller
The first-year head coach of the Texas Longhorns basketball team.
What’s next
The Longhorns need to win their final regular season game against Oklahoma and potentially win at least one game in the SEC Tournament to solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament field.
The takeaway
Texas has put together a strong resume to be in the NCAA Tournament field, but they can't afford a late-season collapse. If they can take care of business in their final regular season game and make a run in the SEC Tournament, the Longhorns should be dancing come March Madness.
