Democrats See Rare Opening in Texas' Largest District After GOP Incumbent's Resignation

Fresh polling and prediction markets point to possible shifts in TX-23 after the GOP incumbent stepped aside.

Apr. 14, 2026 at 11:51am

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A serene, cinematic painting depicting a lone campaign sign in a suburban neighborhood, the sign's message obscured by the play of light and shadow, conveying a sense of political uncertainty and transition.The resignation of a long-serving Republican incumbent has created an unexpected opening for Democrats in a sprawling Texas border district.San Antonio Today

Tony Gonzales' sudden exit has reshaped a long-Republican Texas House district, opening an unexpected contest as Democrats test whether scandal, an open seat and a polarizing GOP nominee can shift the race. Voters now face a choice between Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican nominee Brandon Herrera in an open-seat race with national implications.

Why it matters

Open seats are historically more competitive than incumbent races, and Gonzales' resignation removes a moderate GOP figure who once outperformed his party's top-of-ticket candidates. Democrats see an opening in the sprawling border district Republicans have expanded their grip on through redistricting.

The details

Texas' 23rd Congressional District stretches across 27 counties, running from San Antonio westward along the U.S.–Mexico border to El Paso. It is the largest district in the state by land area, combining suburban neighborhoods, rural ranchland and border communities with vastly different economic concerns. For more than a decade, Republicans have controlled the seat, aided by redistricting that tilted the district rightward and a recent shift of Hispanic voters toward the GOP. That stability ended when Gonzales withdrew from the race amid admission of an extramarital affair and an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation.

  • On Monday, Tony Gonzales announced he will retire from Congress after an ethics probe.
  • The special election in Texas' 23rd Congressional District will take place after Gonzales' resignation.

The players

Tony Gonzales

The Republican incumbent who represented Texas' 23rd Congressional District before resigning amid an ethics probe.

Katy Padilla Stout

The Democratic candidate running for the open seat in Texas' 23rd Congressional District.

Brandon Herrera

The Republican nominee running for the open seat in Texas' 23rd Congressional District.

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What they’re saying

“Brandon has never done or said anything antisemitic, and he has earned the support of leaders in the Jewish community.”

— Campaign spokesman

What’s next

The special election in Texas' 23rd Congressional District will take place after Gonzales' resignation, with voters choosing between Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican nominee Brandon Herrera.

The takeaway

The resignation of the long-serving Republican incumbent in Texas' 23rd Congressional District has created an unexpected opening for Democrats in a district that has trended increasingly conservative in recent years. The race will test whether a polarizing GOP nominee and voter discontent with the party can shift the balance of power in this sprawling border district.