Republicans Alarmed by Mounting Losses Ahead of Midterms

GOP operatives warn of 'sleepy' base as Democrats outperform in state-level races

Published on Feb. 24, 2026

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Republicans are sounding the alarm over a series of crushing losses in recent state-level elections, with Democrats outperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 results by double digits in multiple races. The GOP is concerned about a 'sleepy' base compared to a 'fired-up' Democratic electorate, raising fears about holding onto their Senate majority in the upcoming midterms.

Why it matters

These state-level results could be an early indicator of broader political trends ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with the Republican base appearing less energized than their Democratic counterparts. The potential for a 'MAGA wipeout' has some GOP strategists worried about their party's future prospects.

The details

In 20 state legislative special elections this year, Democrats averaged 10.5 points ahead of Harris' 2024 performance, while last year they outpaced her by nearly 14 points in 67 state House and Senate races. This includes a 14-point victory for a Democrat in a North Texas state Senate seat that Trump had carried by 17 points, and a 24-point win for a Democrat in a Louisiana state House district that Trump had previously won by 13 points. Even in safe GOP territory, Republicans are seeing smaller margins than Trump's 2024 showing.

  • Since the start of 2026, GOP candidates have fallen short of Trump's 2024 performance by double digits in state legislative contests across Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut.
  • On Feb. 10, a Republican claimed victory in a conservative north-central Oklahoma state House seat by 28 points, far narrower than Trump's 58-point margin there in 2024.

The players

Taylor Rehmet

A Democrat who won a 14-point victory in a North Texas state Senate seat that Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024.

Chasity Verret Martinez

A Democrat who won a 24-point victory in a Louisiana state House district that Trump had previously won by 13 points.

Mason Di Palma

A representative of the Republican State Leadership Committee who downplayed the significance of the GOP losses.

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What they’re saying

“While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results, the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base.”

— Unnamed GOP operative (Axios)

“Let's not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake. They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors.”

— Mason Di Palma, Republican State Leadership Committee (Axios)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

These state-level results suggest a potential 'MAGA wipeout' for Republicans, with a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base, raising concerns about the party's ability to hold onto its Senate majority in the upcoming midterms.