2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 'Somewhat Below-Average' Activity

Researchers cite likely El Niño pattern as driving factor behind prediction of fewer storms.

Apr. 10, 2026 at 6:21am

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A vast, atmospheric landscape painting depicting a massive hurricane system dominating the horizon, with the storm's scale and intensity dwarfing any physical structures or objects in the scene.An early forecast of a 'somewhat below-average' 2026 Atlantic hurricane season offers little comfort to coastal communities bracing for the unpredictable power of nature.Brownsville Today

Researchers at Colorado State University have released their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 'somewhat below-average' level of activity with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The forecast cites an expected transition to an El Niño climate pattern as the primary reason for the lower activity levels.

Why it matters

Atlantic hurricane seasons can have major impacts on coastal communities, causing billions in damage and disrupting lives. While a below-average forecast is encouraging, experts caution that it only takes one powerful storm to make a season devastating, so residents should still prepare thoroughly.

The details

CSU's forecast points to the likely development of an El Niño pattern in the coming months, which would create increased vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and an unfavorable environment for hurricane formation. They also noted slightly cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic, although the western Atlantic remains warmer than usual.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1.
  • CSU will issue updated forecasts on June 10, July 8, and August 5 as the season progresses.

The players

Colorado State University

A leading research institution that provides authoritative forecasts and analysis of Atlantic hurricane activity each year.

WFLA Meteorologist Amanda Holly

A local meteorologist who provided additional context and perspective on the CSU forecast for the Tampa, Florida area.

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What they’re saying

“'Their forecast calls for a slightly below average season with El Niño being a factor for the below average forecast.'”

— Amanda Holly, WFLA Meteorologist

“'However, water temperatures are providing mixed signals with both below average and above average temps being detected right now.'”

— Amanda Holly, WFLA Meteorologist

“'Either way, we always say it only takes one storm to make it a bad season, and we should be prepared heading into June 1.'”

— Amanda Holly, WFLA Meteorologist

What’s next

CSU will issue updated forecasts on June 10, July 8, and August 5 as the season progresses, providing residents with the latest information to guide their hurricane preparations.

The takeaway

While the initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast is for a somewhat below-average season, experts caution that coastal communities should still prepare thoroughly, as it only takes one powerful storm to cause major damage and disruption. The forecast could change as the season approaches, so residents should stay vigilant and heed the advice of local meteorologists and emergency management officials.