Social Security COLA Estimate Raises Concerns for Seniors

The Senior Citizens League projects a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, which could mean no meaningful boost in benefits.

Apr. 14, 2026 at 6:19pm

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An abstract illustration using bold geometric shapes and primary colors to conceptually represent the challenges retirees face with a flat Social Security COLA increase despite rising costs.A flat Social Security COLA increase fails to keep pace with the financial struggles of many retirees facing stubbornly high inflation.Martin Today

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has estimated that the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits will be 2.8 percent, unchanged from this year. This projection is fueling concerns that future benefit increases may not keep up with the elevated living costs that many retirees are facing, as expenses like housing, healthcare, and groceries remain stubbornly high.

Why it matters

A 2.8% COLA would leave seniors with no real improvement in purchasing power, as benefits would rise at the same rate as they did this year despite prices remaining significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be especially difficult for retirees living on fixed incomes, as even small differences in annual COLAs can have a major impact on their ability to afford necessities.

The details

According to TSCL, the 2.8% COLA estimate is based on the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which shows inflation remaining elevated but not accelerating enough to trigger a larger adjustment. Experts say this means seniors might continue to face a gap between benefit increases and their actual household costs, particularly in high-cost areas where rent, utilities, and food prices remain stubbornly high.

  • The official 2027 COLA will not be announced until October.
  • Social Security also faces a potential benefit cut of about 24% in 2032 unless Congress acts to fix the impending insolvency.

The players

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)

A non-profit organization that advocates for senior citizens and provides information about Social Security and Medicare.

Shannon Benton

Executive Director of The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).

Alex Beene

A financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin.

Kevin Thompson

CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast.

Drew Powers

Founder of Illinois-based Powers Financial Group.

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What they’re saying

“Americans are right to worry about our current COLA projection. The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise.”

— Shannon Benton, Executive Director, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)

“In general, a COLA staying the same is not a bad thing, as it more broadly signals inflation is becoming less of an issue. However, with many Americans facing an affordability crisis, COLA estimates may be financially sound but not completely capture the economic reality for many beneficiaries.”

— Alex Beene, Financial Literacy Instructor, University of Tennessee at Martin

“A COLA the same size of the previous year is bad news for retirees as roughly 40 percent of them rely solely on Social Security. Furthermore, inflation is likely higher in '26 than '25, so a COLA of the same size of the previous year would actually be negative. When the adjustment fails to keep up with real-world expenses, purchasing power continues to erode, even in a year where benefits technically increase.”

— Kevin Thompson, CEO, 9i Capital Group and Host, 9innings Podcast

“With every COLA increase, senior citizens fall just a little bit further behind. Seniors spend money on different things in different amounts than the general population, and the continued use of the CPI-W keeps the trend moving in the wrong direction.”

— Drew Powers, Founder, Powers Financial Group

What’s next

The official 2027 COLA will not be announced until October, but the early projection from TSCL offers a preview of what retirees might expect. Additionally, Social Security faces a potential benefit cut of about 24% in 2032 unless Congress acts to fix the impending insolvency.

The takeaway

This projected COLA increase highlights the ongoing challenges that many retirees face in keeping up with rising costs of living, even as Social Security benefits are intended to help offset inflation. It underscores the need for policymakers to reevaluate the COLA formula and find ways to better support seniors on fixed incomes as the economy continues to grapple with high inflation.