Medicare Premiums Set to Nearly Double by 2035

Report projects per-person Medicare Part B premiums will rise from $2,200 to $4,500 annually over the next decade.

Mar. 10, 2026 at 8:51pm

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According to a new report from the Senate Joint Economic Committee, Medicare beneficiaries could see their Part B premiums nearly double over the next decade, from about $2,200 per year in the mid-2020s to roughly $4,500 by 2035. This increase is driven largely by rapidly increasing program spending and continued overpayments to Medicare Advantage insurers.

Why it matters

Under current law, Medicare Part B premiums are set to cover 25 percent of expected Part B costs, meaning any increase in overall spending is automatically passed through to seniors in the form of higher monthly premiums. This uptick will occur regardless of whether they are enrolled in traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage, putting pressure on many seniors' budgets and spending on other necessities like housing and transportation.

The details

The report projects that per-person Part B expenditures will nearly double over the next decade, climbing from roughly $9,100 in 2025 to more than $18,000 in 2035. Because premiums are tied directly to those costs, baseline Part B premiums are expected to rise alongside the expenditures. The committee also estimates that continued overpayments to Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, which added more than $200 per enrollee to Part B premiums in 2025 alone, will be a major contributor to rising Part B costs.

  • In 2025, the federal government paid MA insurers an estimated 17 to 20 percent more than it would have cost to cover the same beneficiaries under traditional Medicare.
  • By 2035, the report projects that about $450 of the roughly $5,000 annual Part B premium could be caused by continued overpayments to MA plans, if current payment policies remain unchanged.

The players

Senate Joint Economic Committee

A committee that released a report projecting the rise in Medicare Part B premiums.

Kevin Thompson

The CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, who commented on the impact of rising Medicare premiums on seniors.

Michael Ryan

A finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, who commented on the challenges of reforming the Medicare Advantage program.

Alex Beene

A financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, who commented on the issues with Medicare Advantage coverage.

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What they’re saying

“It is expected, over the next decade, Medicare premiums could nearly double, which effectively becomes a quiet tax on retirees, especially those living on fixed incomes. Seniors should understand that healthcare costs will continue to put pressure on retirement income.”

— Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast

“These overpayments could add hundreds of dollars to Medicare premiums if these issues continue. With inflationary pressures weighing heavily on Medicare recipients, a solution needs to be reached that won't dramatically increase costs on some of the most vulnerable Americans. The question is how to do that while maintaining the infrastructure designed between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage over the last decade.”

— Alex Beene, Financial literacy instructor, University of Tennessee at Martin

What’s next

Without changes, the combination of rising health care costs and automatic premium pass-throughs could leave millions of seniors paying substantially more for Medicare Part B over the next decade. Regulatory efforts to address Medicare Advantage overpayments have so far been stalled by the program's scale and lobbying power.

The takeaway

The projected doubling of Medicare Part B premiums over the next decade highlights the growing affordability challenges facing seniors, especially those on fixed incomes. Addressing the root causes, such as Medicare Advantage overpayments, will be crucial to ensuring Medicare remains accessible and sustainable for the millions of Americans who rely on it.