Projection System Skeptical of 2026 Phillies

Fangraphs sees Braves as NL East favorites, Phillies as third-most likely to make playoffs

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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According to Fangraphs' projections, the Atlanta Braves are favored to win the NL East in 2026, with a 42.6% chance to take the division title. The Phillies, meanwhile, are projected to finish third in the division and have a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs, behind the Braves (84.1%) and Mets (79.5%). The Braves are expected to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2025 season, while the Phillies will face the challenge of taking on the Braves early in the season without their ace Zack Wheeler.

Why it matters

The NL East is shaping up to be a highly competitive division in 2026, with the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all projected to be playoff contenders. How the Phillies fare against their division rivals, especially the Braves, will be crucial to their postseason hopes.

The details

Fangraphs' projections have the Braves winning 90.5 games, the Mets winning 89.5, and the Phillies winning 87.3. The Braves are given a 42.6% chance to win the division, the Mets 34.4%, and the Phillies just 22.3%. The Phillies also have the lowest playoff odds of the three teams at 68.2%, compared to 84.1% for the Braves and 79.5% for the Mets. The Braves are expected to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2025 season, with players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies poised for rebounds. The Phillies, meanwhile, will face the Braves six times in April, likely without their ace Zack Wheeler, who is recovering from offseason surgery.

  • The Phillies will face the Braves six times in April 2026.

The players

Fangraphs

A popular baseball projection system that uses advanced analytics to forecast team and player performance.

Ronald Acuña Jr.

An outfielder for the Atlanta Braves who missed significant time in 2025 due to injuries.

Austin Riley

A third baseman for the Atlanta Braves who was limited to 102 games in 2025 due to an abdominal strain.

Ozzie Albies

A second baseman for the Atlanta Braves who struggled at the plate for much of the 2025 season.

Zack Wheeler

The ace pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies who is recovering from offseason surgery and expected to miss the early part of the 2026 season.

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What’s next

The Phillies will look to take advantage of the Braves' early-season schedule and try to gain ground in the division race before Wheeler returns to the rotation.

The takeaway

The NL East is shaping up to be a highly competitive division in 2026, with the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all projected to be playoff contenders. How the Phillies perform against their division rivals, especially the Braves, will be crucial to their postseason hopes.