NFIB: Business optimism falls in March

Pennsylvania small businesses face rising costs and uncertainty

Apr. 17, 2026 at 1:12pm

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A minimalist studio still life featuring a stack of business documents, a calculator, and a pen arranged on a clean, grey background, symbolizing the abstract challenges of corporate strategy and finance facing Pennsylvania's small businesses.The drop in small business optimism reflects the rising costs and uncertainty facing Pennsylvania's entrepreneurial community.Harrisburg Today

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8, leaving the index below its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68. NFIB Pennsylvania State Director Greg Moreland cited higher costs, especially from the spike in oil prices, and concerns about additional costly proposals from the state legislature as contributing factors to the decline.

Why it matters

Small businesses are a critical part of Pennsylvania's economy, and their optimism and confidence levels can signal broader economic trends. The drop in the Optimism Index, along with rising uncertainty, suggests challenges ahead for the state's small business community.

The details

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points from February to a net negative 25%, which was the biggest contributor to the Optimism Index's decline. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points from February to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. The Employment Index fell 1.9 points, though it remains above both the 2025 average and the historical average. Capital expenditure plans also declined, with 16% of small business owners planning to make outlays in the next six months, down 2 points from February and the lowest level since November 2009.

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March 2026.
  • The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92 in March 2026.

The players

NFIB

The National Federation of Independent Business, a small business advocacy organization.

Greg Moreland

NFIB Pennsylvania State Director, who commented on the drop in the Optimism Index.

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What they’re saying

“Small businesses throughout Pennsylvania are absorbing higher costs caused by the dramatic spike in oil prices. Small employers are less optimistic about expecting better business conditions, and Pennsylvania small businesses in particular are worried about additional costly proposals coming out of the General Assembly.”

— Greg Moreland, NFIB Pennsylvania State Director

The takeaway

The decline in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and rising uncertainty among Pennsylvania's small businesses suggest that the state's economic recovery may face headwinds in the coming months, with small firms grappling with higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and policy uncertainty.