NOAA Forecasts El Niño Conditions Ahead

Transition from La Niña could impact weather in the Lower 48 later this year

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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NOAA is now predicting that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will warm over the next several months, marking a departure from the current La Niña conditions and a transition to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.

Why it matters

The shift from La Niña to El Niño can have significant impacts on weather patterns across the United States, including changes to temperature, precipitation, and hurricane activity. This transition is closely watched by meteorologists and climate scientists.

The details

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles explains that the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions is expected to occur over the coming months. This shift in the Pacific Ocean's temperature patterns can influence weather in the Lower 48 states, potentially bringing changes to typical temperature and precipitation levels in various regions.

  • NOAA is forecasting the transition from La Niña to El Niño in the coming months.
  • The shift is expected to occur by the peak of the 2026 hurricane season.

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

Jonathan Belles

A meteorologist who has analyzed the forecasted transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions and its potential impacts on weather in the Lower 48 states.

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What they’re saying

“NOAA is now forecasting water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to warm over the next several months, marking a departure from La Niña to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.”

— Jonathan Belles, Meteorologist (weather.com)

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific and analyze the potential impacts on weather patterns in the United States.

The takeaway

The transition from La Niña to El Niño could bring significant changes to temperature, precipitation, and hurricane activity in the Lower 48 states later this year, underscoring the importance of closely tracking these climate patterns.