Stocks Supported by US-Iran Peace Optimism

Nasdaq 100 hits 2.5-month high as S&P 500 rises to 2-month peak on hopes for Middle East ceasefire extension

Apr. 15, 2026 at 3:51pm

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An extreme close-up of the heavy, industrial machinery and infrastructure that powers the global financial system, conveying a sense of security and institutional strength.As tensions over the US-Iran conflict ease, the financial markets find stability in the solid foundations of the banking industry.Cleveland Today

US stock indexes are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-month high and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a 2.5-month peak. Optimism around a potential peace deal between the US and Iran is supporting the market, as the two countries reportedly reached an 'in-principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and allow for more diplomacy. President Trump also said peace talks could restart in the next two days, suggesting the war is 'close to over.'

Why it matters

The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil and fuel supplies. Iran has threatened to target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened. The prospect of a ceasefire extension is seen as a positive development for the markets, as it could ease geopolitical tensions and reduce the risk of further escalation in the region.

The details

The S&P 500 is up 0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.15%. June E-mini S&P futures are up 0.16%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures are up 0.20%. The April Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions rose to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expected. The March import price index ex-petroleum rose 0.1% month-over-month, weaker than the 0.3% increase expected. US MBA mortgage applications increased 1.8% in the week ended April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up 5.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 9 basis points to 6.42%.

  • On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.
  • President Trump on Tuesday said peace talks with Iran could restart 'over the next two days,' and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary as the war is 'close to over.'

The players

Beth Hammack

Cleveland Fed President, who made hawkish comments saying the Fed is on hold for a 'good while' as the central bank is still persistently missing its inflation mandate.

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What they’re saying

“We're still persistently missing the inflation mandate and that her baseline is the Fed is on hold for a 'good while'.”

— Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President

What’s next

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 basis point FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

The takeaway

The prospect of a ceasefire extension between the US and Iran is seen as a positive development for the markets, as it could ease geopolitical tensions and reduce the risk of further escalation in the region. However, the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and hawkish comments from the Cleveland Fed President are also factors that investors are closely monitoring.