Miami University's NCAA Tournament Selection Scenarios Revealed

Redhawks' path to the Big Dance depends on number of losses

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

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As Miami University's men's basketball team continues its undefeated season, the focus turns to their NCAA Tournament selection scenarios. The article breaks down how many losses the Redhawks can afford and still make the Big Dance, with the key metric being Wins Against Bubble (WAB) which measures how the average bubble team would perform against Miami's schedule. The article outlines several potential scenarios, from winning the MAC Tournament to suffering one, two or three losses, and how each would impact Miami's at-large chances on Selection Sunday.

Why it matters

Miami University is seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007, and this undefeated season has put them in prime position to earn an at-large bid if they don't win the MAC Tournament. However, the number of losses they incur down the stretch will be crucial in determining their NCAA Tournament fate, as the WAB metric heavily factors into the selection committee's decisions.

The details

Miami University currently sits at 25-0 on the season, with a 2-0 record in Quad 2 games and a strong WAB ranking of 34. The Redhawks' remaining regular season schedule features six games, with the toughest test coming at UMass. If Miami wins the MAC Tournament, they're guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their regular season finish. However, if they need an at-large bid, their WAB ranking will be crucial. A one-loss scenario in the MAC Tournament would likely keep them in the upper 30s or lower 40s of WAB, which would be enough for an at-large bid. Two losses would make things dicier, likely dropping them into the 40s in WAB. Three losses would all but doom their at-large chances, as they'd likely fall outside the top 50 in WAB.

  • Miami University is currently 25-0 on the season.
  • The Redhawks have six regular season games remaining, with the toughest test coming at UMass on Tuesday night.
  • The MAC Tournament is scheduled for March 14, where Miami will need to win three games in three days to earn the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The players

Miami University

The men's basketball team at Miami University, located in Oxford, Ohio, that is currently undefeated and seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007.

Akron

The Zips are one of Miami's top competitors in the Mid-American Conference (MAC), having defeated the Redhawks in last year's MAC Tournament title game.

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What they’re saying

“It's important to draw a distinction between resume metrics and predictive metrics when talking about a team like Miami University and the NCAA Tournament bubble. Selection decisions are closely tied to your resume and what you've accomplished, which is a good thing for Miami.”

— David Cobb, Author (cbssports.com)

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