Gasoline Prices Slow to Drop After Persian Gulf Conflict

Reopening of Strait of Hormuz may take months to fully normalize fuel costs

Apr. 18, 2026 at 3:18am

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An abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and circles in shades of blue, yellow, and red, conceptually representing the complex global oil supply chain and its impact on gasoline prices.The gradual normalization of global oil flows will slowly bring relief to consumers at the gas pump.NYC Today

After the U.S. and Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial vessels following a nearly 7-week conflict, oil prices plunged 10% and the stock market rallied. However, experts say it could take months for gasoline prices to return to pre-war levels, citing factors like slow tanker travel times, lingering security concerns, traffic congestion, and damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

Why it matters

The conflict in the Persian Gulf and disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused a major spike in global gasoline prices, impacting consumers and the broader economy. The reopening of the strait is a positive development, but the process of normalizing fuel costs will be gradual due to the complex logistics of the global oil supply chain.

The details

Even with the Strait of Hormuz reopened, it could take weeks for oil tankers stuck in the region to reach their destinations, and months to fully restore refining and distribution capacity damaged during the conflict. Factors like slow tanker travel times, lingering security concerns, traffic congestion in the strait, and damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East are all contributing to the slow decline in gasoline prices.

  • The conflict in the Persian Gulf began on February 28, 2026.
  • The U.S. and Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial vessels on April 17, 2026.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States at the time of the conflict.

Iran's Foreign Minister

The foreign minister of Iran who announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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What they’re saying

“The historical observation is that gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly, regardless of the particular causes of the increase.”

— Mark Barteau, Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University

“That doesn't happen overnight, but within a week or two, we could be down 50 cents a gallon easily, if this holds.”

— Michael Lynch, Distinguished Fellow, Energy Policy Research Foundation

“It might take until later this year or early next year to really fully normalize and for some of these surcharges and impacts to reverse and disappear.”

— Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis, GasBuddy

What’s next

If an agreement to end the war is reached, it could take at least four months for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to go back to normal, as mines need to be removed, tankers need to be cleared from the congested area, and shipping rates need to stabilize.

The takeaway

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a positive development, but the process of normalizing gasoline prices will be gradual due to the complex logistics of the global oil supply chain. Consumers should expect a slow and steady decline in fuel costs over the coming months as the energy infrastructure in the Middle East is repaired and shipping operations return to pre-conflict levels.