Global Demand Concerns Undercut Cocoa Prices

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Cocoa futures prices fell sharply on Thursday, with May ICE NY cocoa closing down 3.16% and May ICE London cocoa #7 closing down 2.35%. The decline was driven by concerns about global cocoa demand, including a 7.8% year-over-year drop in Q1 European cocoa grindings and an unexpected 5.2% rise in Q1 Asian cocoa grindings. Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast and rising cocoa inventories also weighed on prices.

Why it matters

Cocoa is a key ingredient in chocolate, and changes in global cocoa prices can impact the cost of chocolate for consumers as well as the profitability of cocoa producers and chocolate manufacturers. The decline in cocoa prices reflects broader concerns about weakening global demand, which could signal economic headwinds.

The details

The European Cocoa Association reported that Q1 European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year-over-year to 325,895 MT, a bigger decline than expected. However, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q1 Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose 5.2% year-over-year to 223,503 MT. Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast, with farmers shipping 1.46 MMT of cocoa to ports so far this marketing year, up 0.7% from a year ago, also put downward pressure on prices. ICE cocoa inventories also rose to a 19.75-month high of 2,624,492 bags on Thursday.

• On Thursday, May ICE NY cocoa closed down 3.16% and May ICE London cocoa #7 closed down 2.35%.
• On April 7, the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed funds boosted their short position in NY cocoa by 1,900 net short positions to 16,368, the most in more than 3 years.
• On Monday, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.46 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through April 12, 2026), up 0.7% from 1.45 MMT in the same period a year ago.
• On Thursday, ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19.75-month high of 2,624,492 bags.