Investors Shrug Off Iran Volatility, Expect Market Rebound

JPMorgan strategist says markets are ready to move past geopolitical tensions and refocus on long-term fundamentals

Apr. 15, 2026 at 11:19am

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An abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conveying a sense of dynamism and resilience in the face of market turbulence.Investors remain undaunted by geopolitical volatility, betting the market will bounce back once the Iran conflict subsides.NYC Today

Despite the recent volatility caused by the ongoing conflict with Iran, investors are remaining optimistic and expect markets to rebound quickly once the situation stabilizes. JPMorgan strategist Jack Manley says investors have become accustomed to dealing with geopolitical shocks and are confident that "this too shall pass." Manley believes that once a ceasefire or peace deal is reached, energy prices will come down and stocks will return their focus to the broader economic issues they were grappling with before the conflict erupted.

Why it matters

The Iran conflict has had a significant impact on global energy markets, with oil prices spiking due to concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This has contributed to higher inflation, particularly in the U.S. where energy costs have risen sharply. However, investors seem to be taking the volatility in stride, betting that the market will quickly recover once the geopolitical tensions subside.

The details

Ahead of the opening bell in New York, the S&P 500 index closed just shy of a record high, with the index up 9.8% over the past 10 trading sessions - the fastest such rally since the post-COVID bounce back in 2020. Investors appear eager to move past the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, with JPMorgan's Manley noting that the market has demonstrated its resilience in the face of past geopolitical shocks. He believes that once a ceasefire or peace deal is reached, energy prices will come down and stocks will return their focus to the broader economic issues they were grappling with before the conflict erupted.

  • On April 15, 2026, the S&P 500 closed just shy of a record high.
  • Over the past 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has rallied 9.8%, the fastest such run since the post-COVID bounce back in April 2020.

The players

Jack Manley

A global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management who believes investors have become accustomed to dealing with geopolitical shocks and are confident the market will rebound quickly once the Iran situation stabilizes.

Henry Allen

A strategist at Deutsche Bank who noted that the S&P 500's recent rally has been even faster than the bounce back after "Liberation Day" last year.

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What they’re saying

“I know energy prices will move lower, and I know stocks are going to go back to focus again on the other big existential questions that they were asking before all this stuff kicked off, and I think you can maintain a risk-on bias even against this haziness by kind of seeing through all the [volatility].”

— Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management

“For reference, that's now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven't seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020.”

— Henry Allen, Strategist, Deutsche Bank

What’s next

Investors will be closely watching for any developments in the Iran peace talks, which President Trump has suggested could resume this week. A successful ceasefire or peace deal could lead to a further rally in stocks as energy prices decline.

The takeaway

Despite the volatility caused by the Iran conflict, investors have demonstrated a resilience and willingness to look past geopolitical shocks, betting that the market will quickly recover once the situation stabilizes. This reflects a broader trend of investors becoming more accustomed to dealing with uncertainty and political turmoil in recent years.