MLB Insider Predicts Mets to Finish 3rd in NL East

Steve Phillips cites roster losses and slow-playing of key players as reasons for his pessimistic Mets outlook.

Published on Feb. 22, 2026

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Baseball analyst Steve Phillips believes the New York Mets are one of the "least improved" teams this offseason and predicts they will finish third in the NL East, missing the playoffs. Phillips cited the losses of stars like Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz, as well as concerns over the Mets' slow-playing of key players like Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Alvarez in spring training, as reasons for his skepticism about the team's outlook.

Why it matters

The Mets were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the NL East this offseason, but this insider's critical assessment could dampen expectations for the team and its fanbase heading into the 2026 season.

The details

Phillips believes the Mets have taken a step back offensively by losing Alonso and seeing Brandon Nimmo depart, while also taking a hit at closer with the departure of Edwin Diaz. He's uncertain about the rest of the Mets' rotation beyond Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean. Phillips also questioned the Mets' approach of "slow-playing" the spring training of several key players like Luis Robert Jr., Francisco Alvarez, and Jorge Polanco, saying that work should have been done in the offseason.

  • The Mets are preparing for the 2026 MLB season in spring training.

The players

Steve Phillips

A baseball insider and analyst who appeared on the MLB Network to share his pessimistic outlook on the Mets' offseason moves and 2026 prospects.

Pete Alonso

A star player the Mets lost in the offseason, which Phillips believes will hurt the team's offense.

Edwin Diaz

The Mets' former closer who departed in the offseason, creating a void in that role according to Phillips.

Luis Robert Jr.

A key Mets player who the team is reportedly "slow-playing" in spring training, a move that concerns Phillips.

Francisco Alvarez

Another Mets player the team is reportedly "slow-playing" in spring training, raising questions from Phillips.

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What they’re saying

“I think they lost a lot in Pete Alonso. Brandon Nimmo was a better offensive player than is Marcus Semien, and Semien is better defensively, but I think they've gone backwards offensively. They're backwards at the closer's role where Diaz leaves, and Devin Williams comes in. I love Freddy Peralta, and [Nolan] McLean, I believe in him too, but the rest of the rotation, I don't know.”

— Steve Phillips, Baseball Insider (MLB Network)

“They're slow-playing spring training for Luis Robert and Francisco Alvarez, and then Jorge Polanco, and trying to make sure they get themselves in the best shape possible. That should have been an off-season project. The Mets are one of the most confusing teams for me.”

— Steve Phillips, Baseball Insider (MLB Network)

What’s next

The Mets will look to prove Phillips wrong as they aim to improve on their 83-79 record from the 2025 season and challenge for a playoff spot in the NL East.

The takeaway

This insider's critical assessment of the Mets' offseason moves and cautious approach with key players raises doubts about the team's ability to take the next step and contend in the NL East, setting up an intriguing storyline to follow as the 2026 MLB season approaches.