Wall Street Moves Into Prediction Markets With Election-Contract ETF Filings

Institutional investors are entering prediction markets, following a strategy seen earlier in the crypto space.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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Asset managers are filing for prediction-market tied exchange-traded funds as the space continues to gain traction. Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares have both filed for ETFs linked to the outcomes of US elections, mirroring a trend seen earlier in the crypto industry.

Why it matters

The entry of institutional investors into prediction markets through ETFs signals growing mainstream interest and legitimacy in this emerging financial sector. As the prediction market space sees record trading volumes and user growth, these ETF filings could further drive adoption and innovation in the space.

The details

Bitwise Asset Management has filed for six 'PredictionShares' ETFs that would provide exposure to the outcomes of the 2026 and 2028 US elections. The funds would primarily gain exposure through swap agreements referencing CFTC-regulated event contracts. GraniteShares has also filed for six similar election-focused prediction market ETFs. These filings follow a recent move by Roundhill to enter the prediction market ETF space.

  • On February 17, 2026, Bitwise Asset Management submitted a post-effective amendment to register six prediction market ETFs.
  • On February 17, 2026, GraniteShares also filed for six similar election-focused prediction market ETFs.

The players

Bitwise Asset Management

An asset management firm that has filed for six 'PredictionShares' ETFs linked to US election outcomes.

GraniteShares

An independent ETF issuer that has filed for six election-focused prediction market ETFs.

Roundhill

An ETF issuer that recently filed for prediction market ETFs tracking political elections.

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What they’re saying

“PredictionShares will serve as a new Bitwise platform focused on providing exposure to prediction markets. Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan says prediction markets are accelerating in both scale and importance, making client exposure an opportunity the firm couldn't pass up.”

— Eleanor Terrett, Crypto In America host (Crypto In America)

“The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues.”

— James Seyffart, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Research Analyst (Bloomberg)

What’s next

As more asset managers file for prediction market ETFs, the sector is likely to see continued growth and institutional adoption. Regulators will also play a key role in shaping the development of this emerging financial space.

The takeaway

The entry of Wall Street into prediction markets through ETF filings signals growing mainstream interest and legitimacy in this emerging financial sector. As the prediction market space sees record growth, these ETF offerings could further drive adoption and innovation, potentially opening the door to new types of investment products.