Skeptic Offers Wager on AI's Economic Impact

Freddie de Boer challenges Scott Alexander to a bet on whether AI will disrupt the economy in the next three years

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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Freddie de Boer, a prominent skeptic of exaggerated claims about the impact of artificial intelligence, is offering a $5,000 wager to Scott Alexander of Astral Codex Ten that the economy will remain relatively "normal" over the next three years, based on a set of specific economic indicators. De Boer argues that predictions of imminent, AI-driven economic disruption are unfounded and that the burden of proof lies with those making such extraordinary claims.

Why it matters

This wager represents an attempt to move the AI discourse away from speculative predictions and toward evidence-based observations. De Boer believes the media and public discourse have become overly credulous toward claims of AI's transformative potential, and he hopes to force a reckoning by putting money on the line.

The details

De Boer has outlined a detailed set of conditions for the wager, including thresholds for unemployment, GDP, productivity, inflation, corporate profits, and inequality metrics. If any of these indicators fall outside the defined "normal" ranges by February 2029, Scott Alexander would win the bet. De Boer acknowledges the conditions are open to criticism but argues they provide a concrete, measurable test of the AI disruption thesis.

  • The wager would be settled on February 14, 2029.
  • De Boer says he expects Scott Alexander to decline the bet outright, but is open to negotiating altered terms.

The players

Freddie de Boer

A prominent skeptic of exaggerated claims about the impact of artificial intelligence, who is offering a $5,000 wager to Scott Alexander.

Scott Alexander

The writer of the Astral Codex Ten blog, who is an AI enthusiast and signatory of the AGI 2027 statement, and has grown increasingly irritated by de Boer's skepticism.

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What they’re saying

“I will seriously entertain evidence-backed observations, not speculative predictions. That's it. That's the rule; that's the law. That's the ethic, the discipline, the mantra, the creed, the holy book, the catechism.”

— Freddie de Boer (substack.com)

“If AI is truly about to revolutionize everything the way proponents claim, we should see massive economic disruption: widespread job losses, productivity explosions, collapsing wages in knowledge work, extreme wealth concentration, extreme changes in fundamental economic indicators in either direction, something like that, some truly significant changes in large-scale economic data, if Scott and others are right.”

— Freddie de Boer (substack.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This wager represents an attempt to ground the AI discourse in concrete, measurable economic indicators rather than speculative predictions. It challenges the notion of imminent, AI-driven disruption and calls for a more evidence-based approach to evaluating the technology's real-world impacts.