New Poll Reveals Democrats' Top Picks for 2028 Presidential Race

Early polling provides insights into potential candidates' viability and voter sentiments as they weigh whether to jump into the 2028 presidential race.

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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A new poll reveals early Democratic front-runners to win the party's 2028 presidential nomination, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the pack at 39% support, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 21% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%. The poll also shows support for other potential candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, and Mark Kelly.

Why it matters

Early polling provides insights into candidates' viability and voter sentiments as they weigh whether to jump into the 2028 presidential race. Several prominent Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have been floated as likely contenders. The poll comes as several prospective candidates attend the Munich Security Conference, providing them with an opportunity to share their vision for American foreign policy.

The details

According to a poll conducted by Focaldata, Harris is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination if she runs in 2028, with 39% of respondents saying they would support her candidacy. Newsom followed with 21% support, while 10% backed Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives. Both former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 7% of respondents' support, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly received 6%. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer followed at 4%, while Illinois Governor JB Pritzker had support from 3% of Democrats in the poll. Two potential candidates, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, received 1% of the vote.

  • The poll surveyed 1,148 voters on February 10, 2026.

The players

Kamala Harris

Former Vice President of the United States.

Gavin Newsom

Governor of California.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

U.S. Representative for New York's 14th congressional district.

Pete Buttigieg

Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation.

Josh Shapiro

Governor of Pennsylvania.

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What they’re saying

“In democracies, we have elected leaders, and in massive corporations that then begin to consume the public sector, gobble up this spending, they start to call the shots and we're starting to see this with some of the billionaire class throwing their weight around in domestic politics and in global politics as well. It is of urgent priority that we get our economic houses in order and deliver material gains for the working class or else we will fall to a more isolated world, governed by authoritarians that also do not deliver to working people.”

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Munich Security Conference)

“Donald Trump is temporary. He'll be gone in three years. California is a stable and reliable partner in this space. It's important for folks to understand the temporary nature of this administration in relationship to the issue of climate change and climate policy.”

— Gavin Newsom (Munich Security Conference)

“The perceived state of the economy, and its not meeting voters' expectations, given Trump's promises. Also, the disruption caused by ICE officers' overly aggressive actions against immigrants—taking citizens into custody, killing people in incidents that have shown their lack of training, and otherwise acting illegally. Voters don't like disruption in general and especially when it has been caused by government-related actions. Also, the distraction provided by the Epstein scandal has added to bad news for Republicans in how the FBI and the Justice Department has mishandled the investigation and evidence.”

— Robert Y. Shapiro, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University (Newsweek)

What’s next

Generally speaking, most candidates do not begin announcing campaigns until after the midterms. That means primary campaigns may kick off in 2027, but candidates are likely already weighing whether to run.

The takeaway

This early polling provides a glimpse into the potential 2028 Democratic presidential field, with Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerging as frontrunners. However, the race is still wide open, and factors like the state of the economy, immigration policy, and foreign policy will likely shape the primary contest in the years to come.