Holiday Sales Surge, But Returns Spike Even Higher

New data shows post-holiday return volumes grew nearly twice as fast as holiday orders, driven by plunging consumer confidence.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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While holiday order volumes increased by about 6% year-over-year, beating expectations, data from e-commerce platform Narvar shows that post-holiday return volumes rose almost twice as much, growing about 11% from 2024. Narvar cited the downturn in consumer confidence - which took a nosedive to a 12-year low in January - as the culprit behind shoppers' trepidation and increased propensity to return items that don't meet their exact needs or value thresholds.

Why it matters

This 'provisional purchasing' trend poses a major challenge for retailers, who must now balance surging returns with protecting profit margins. Retailers that can design flexible, cost-sensitive returns policies to build consumer loyalty will be best positioned to navigate this cautious market.

The details

While holiday order volumes increased by about 6% year-over-year, beating experts' expectations, post-holiday return volumes rose almost twice as much, growing about 11% from 2024. Narvar CEO Anisa Kumar said 'Because shoppers are no longer keeping items that don't meet an exact need or value threshold, the real danger for retailers is that a confusing or rigid return process won't just cost them a sale—it will cost them the customer entirely.' Some retailers are evolving their returns processes, like offering boxless returns to cut processing costs by 15-20% and simplified drop-off options to improve the customer experience.

  • Holiday order volumes increased by about 6% year over year in 2025.
  • Post-holiday return volumes grew about 11% from 2024 to 2025.
  • Consumer confidence took a nosedive to a 12-year low in January 2026.

The players

Narvar

A post-purchase e-commerce platform that provides insights into retail returns and consumer behavior.

Dana M. Peterson

Chief economist at the Conference Board, which reported a 12-year low in consumer confidence in January 2026.

Anisa Kumar

CEO of Narvar, who said retailers must design flexible returns policies to build consumer loyalty in this cautious market.

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What they’re saying

“Because shoppers are no longer keeping items that don't meet an exact need or value threshold, the real danger for retailers is that a confusing or rigid return process won't just cost them a sale—it will cost them the customer entirely.”

— Anisa Kumar, CEO, Narvar (Sourcing Journal)

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened.”

— Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist, Conference Board (Sourcing Journal)

What’s next

Retailers will need to closely monitor consumer confidence and shopping trends in the coming months to adjust their returns policies and processes accordingly.

The takeaway

Retailers must prioritize flexible, cost-sensitive returns options that provide a seamless customer experience in order to build brand loyalty and protect profit margins in this cautious consumer environment.