Rising Costs and Tightening Capacity Signal Volatile Freight Market

ITS Logistics March Supply Chain Report cites geopolitical tensions, inflation, and declining imports as key factors

Mar. 31, 2026 at 4:08pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A photorealistic studio still life featuring a polished metal fuel canister, a stack of shipping invoices, and a digital display showing rising fuel prices, all arranged elegantly on a clean, monochromatic background to symbolize the volatility and pressures facing the freight industry.As geopolitical tensions and inflation disrupt supply chains, the freight market faces mounting pressure from rising fuel costs and tightening transportation capacity.Reno Today

The March ITS Supply Chain Report from logistics provider ITS Logistics confirms that freight rates remain elevated, U.S. import volumes decreased year-over-year, and the Logistics Managers Index rose to its strongest reading in roughly a year. However, the uncertain domestic economic outlook is being compounded by armed conflict in key international energy corridors, disrupting shipping flows and driving fuel cost volatility.

Why it matters

The combination of softening economic data, tightening transportation capacity, and surging energy costs is creating a highly volatile freight market environment. Shippers are facing challenges securing reliable transportation, while carriers are under financial pressure from rising diesel prices and other inflationary factors.

The details

The report notes that van and reefer freight rates remain above 2025 levels, while U.S. containerized import volumes fell 9.7% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year in February 2026. The Logistics Managers Index also rose sharply, driven by tightening transportation conditions. However, the U.S. economy saw modest setbacks in February, with payrolls declining unexpectedly and unemployment ticking upward. This uncertainty is being compounded by armed conflict in key energy corridors, disrupting shipping flows and driving fuel cost volatility. Diesel prices have surged 36% in just two weeks due to Middle East tensions, pushing up all-in truckload rates even as base rates eased slightly.

  • In February 2026, U.S. containerized imports totaled 2,093,422 TEUs, down 9.7% from January and 6.5% compared to February 2025.
  • On March 11, prices for energy items rose 0.5% from a year earlier, while gasoline prices were down 5.6% from a year earlier.
  • By March 26, gasoline prices had surged to an average of $3.961 per gallon, jumping nearly 18% in two weeks and representing a 27% increase compared to March 2025.

The players

ITS Logistics

An Echo Global Logistics company that provides a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfillment services.

Josh Allen

Chief Commercial Officer at ITS Logistics.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“With core inflation lingering above the Federal Reserve's target rate and geopolitical tensions in Iran driving up energy costs, the overall outlook remains volatile and largely uncertain.”

— Josh Allen, Chief Commercial Officer, ITS Logistics

“With key produce regions seeing slight capacity shortages and further tightening market conditions, a 36% surge in diesel prices driven by Middle East tensions is pushing all-in rates for truckload higher even as base rates eased slightly mid-month, and carriers continue to feel financial pressure. For shippers, this points to a market where securing reliable transportation capacity is becoming the primary pressure point, reinforcing the value of flexible distribution networks and established carrier relationships.”

— Josh Allen, Chief Commercial Officer, ITS Logistics

What’s next

As the freight market remains volatile, shippers will need to focus on building flexible distribution networks and maintaining strong carrier relationships to secure reliable transportation capacity.

The takeaway

The combination of softening economic data, tightening transportation capacity, and surging energy costs is creating a highly volatile freight market environment that will require shippers to be agile and proactive in managing their supply chains.