When will NJ snow and ice melt? It's about more than just temperatures

Density, sunlight, and other factors play a critical role in the rate and resistance of melting, experts say.

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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The Jersey Shore is finally emerging from a three-week deep freeze, but the dense snowpack and thick layer of sleet will take time to fully melt, even as temperatures rise above freezing. The National Weather Service says factors like dewpoints, sunlight, nighttime temperatures, winds, and liquid density all impact the snow and ice melt process. While the snow and ice is expected to linger through the weekend, a more substantial melt is anticipated next week as temperatures and dewpoints climb.

Why it matters

The extended deep freeze and lingering snow and ice have had significant impacts on the local community, including damage to infrastructure like the Keansburg Fishing Pier, disruption to the blue crab fishing industry, and the temporary halt of winter recreational activities like ice skating and ice boating. Understanding the complex factors behind the snow and ice melt process can help residents and businesses better prepare for and adapt to these extreme winter conditions.

The details

The National Weather Service Mount Holly station explained that the Jersey Shore's snowpack is very dense due to being capped with a thick layer of sleet in many areas. This makes the snow and ice more resistant to melting, similar to how an ice cube takes longer to melt than an equivalent amount of shaved ice. In addition to the dense snowpack, factors like dewpoints, sunlight, nighttime temperatures, winds, and the liquid density of the snow and ice all play a critical role in the rate and resistance of melting.

  • The Jersey Shore has been in the grip of a three-week-long deep freeze.
  • Daytime temperatures have climbed above freezing this past week.
  • The snowpack is expected to stick around through the weekend.
  • Next week, daytime temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 40s at the Shore with overnight temperatures reaching above freezing on Tuesday.
  • The Monmouth County Park System said on Wednesday that ice skating and ice fishing is now unsafe at all county parks.

The players

National Weather Service Mount Holly station

The local National Weather Service station that posted on social media about the factors impacting the snow and ice melt process.

Belford Seafood Co-Op

A cooperative of crabbers in New Jersey whose boats have been unable to dredge for blue claw crabs for three weeks due to the frozen waterways.

Roy Diehl

The president of the Belford Seafood Cooperative.

Hank Gehlhaus

The owner of the Keansburg Fishing Pier, which partially collapsed due to the ice.

Capt. Dan Schade

The owner of the Navesink River Queen paddleboat, which is still locked in ice at the Atlantic Highlands Marina.

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What they’re saying

“Our snowpack is very dense, due to being capped with a thick layer of sleet in many areas of the region.”

— National Weather Service Mount Holly station (Social media)

“They're on stand-by. No income. They're antsy waiting to go to work. But it's part of the territory. It would nice if there were some disaster money.”

— Roy Diehl, President, Belford Seafood Cooperative (Asbury Park Press)

“About the only good thing about the ice is I don't have to worry about the boat being rocked around in the wind. It's not moving.”

— Capt. Dan Schade, Owner, Navesink River Queen paddleboat (Asbury Park Press)

What’s next

The Monmouth County Park System said on Wednesday that ice skating and ice fishing is now unsafe at all county parks, indicating the ice and snow melt process is progressing.

The takeaway

This deep freeze has highlighted the complex interplay of factors that influence snow and ice melt, beyond just air temperatures. Understanding these nuances can help communities better prepare for and respond to extreme winter weather events in the future, from protecting infrastructure to supporting weather-dependent industries like the local crab fishing industry.